Home / NFL Projections NFL / Bengals @ Dolphins CIN @ MIA

CINCINNATI

BENGALSCIN

4-10  |  Road

45
FINAL
Sun, Dec 21 • 1:00 PM ET
Hard Rock Stadium
View Odds Details →

MIAMI

DOLPHINSMIA

6-8  |  Home

21
Key Game
Ryan Rehkow
KEY GAME

Ryan Rehkow

#8 | Punter
@
Riley Patterson
KEY GAME

Riley Patterson

#47 | Place kicker
Player
Ryan Rehkow None-None
Riley Patterson None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BENGALS
0%
📊
DOLPHINS
100%
BENGALS --
DOLPHINS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
37.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+3.0
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
BengalsCIN (-3.5) 0 DolphinsMIA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bengals Cover

41.5%

Dolphins Cover

58.5%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around MIA +3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)

CIN By 1-6 points

17.0%

CIN By 7-13 points

17.5%

MIA By 1-6 points

15.3%

MIA By 7-13 points

12.9%

AI Model Projected Score
20
CINCINNATI
17
MIAMI
Simulated Score
23
CINCINNATI
27
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bengals Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Dolphins Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Dolphins (+4.5) Win
Proj Spread: +3.0
D
Sim Dolphins (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u48.5 Loss
Proj Total: 37.0
D
Sim u48.5 Win
Proj Total: 50.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 21, 2025 CIN @ MIA 45 - 21
Sep 29, 2022 MIA @ CIN 15 - 27
Dec 6, 2020 CIN @ MIA 7 - 19
Dec 22, 2019 CIN @ MIA 35 - 38
Oct 7, 2018 MIA @ CIN 17 - 27
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +46.1% more
Cincinnati: 1.5 vs Miami: 0.8
Net Passing Yards (L5) +42.2% more
Cincinnati: 255.5 vs Miami: 147.8
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +26.0% more
Cincinnati: 0.5 vs Miami: 0.3
First Downs (L5) +13.3% more
Cincinnati: 22.5 vs Miami: 19.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CIN Score 20.0 45
MIA Score 17.0 21
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
81%TICKETS19%
66%MONEY34%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
45%MONEY55%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
52%MONEY48%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +1.3
MIA
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -13.8 ATS +/-: -4.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +1.3
MIA
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -13.8 ATS +/-: -4.9
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -2.3
MIA
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -5.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
CIN
MIA
CIN
ML
100% 4-0
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
ATS
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
TTL
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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