Home / NFL Projections NFL / Bills @ Browns BUF @ CLE

BUFFALO

BILLSBUF

10-4  |  Road

23
FINAL
Sun, Dec 21 • 1:00 PM ET
Huntington Bank Field
View Odds Details →

CLEVELAND

BROWNSCLE

3-11  |  Home

20
Key Game
👤
KEY GAME

Mecole Hardman Jr.

#1 | Wide Receiver
@
Andre Szmyt
KEY GAME

Andre Szmyt

#25 | Place kicker
Player
Mecole Hardman Jr. None-None
Andre Szmyt None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BILLS
0%
📊
BROWNS
100%
BILLS --
BROWNS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
51.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-25.0
BUFFALO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +25.0 points (Buffalo)
BillsBUF (-3.5) 0 BrownsCLE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bills Cover

96.3%

Browns Cover

3.7%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around BUF -25.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BUF)

BUF By 1-6 points

5.3%

BUF By 7-13 points

11.3%

CLE By 1-6 points

2.2%

CLE By 7-13 points

0.9%

AI Model Projected Score
38
BUFFALO
13
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
20
BUFFALO
27
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bills Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Browns Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bills (+10.5) Win
Proj Spread: -25.0
D
Sim Browns (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o41.5 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
D
Sim u41.5 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 21, 2025 BUF @ CLE 23 - 20
Nov 20, 2022 CLE @ BUF 23 - 31
Nov 10, 2019 BUF @ CLE 16 - 19
Dec 18, 2016 CLE @ BUF 13 - 33
Nov 30, 2014 CLE @ BUF 10 - 26
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +46.9% more
Buffalo: 174.6 vs Cleveland: 92.8
Total Yards (L5) +21.7% more
Buffalo: 385.2 vs Cleveland: 301.7
First Downs (L5) +21.1% more
Buffalo: 21.3 vs Cleveland: 16.8
Yards Per Play (L5) +17.5% more
Buffalo: 6.1 vs Cleveland: 5.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BUF Score 38.0 23
CLE Score 13.0 20
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
95%TICKETS5%
84%MONEY16%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
63%MONEY37%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
66%MONEY34%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BUF
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: -0.3
CLE
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: -3.5 ATS +/-: +2.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BUF
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: -0.3
CLE
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: -3.5 ATS +/-: +2.1
⚖️ Over/Under
BUF
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +8.8
CLE
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +3.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
BUF
CLE
BUF
ML
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
ATS
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
TTL
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Cowboys Release TCU Alum Emari Demercado, Activate All-Pro Tyler…
star_telegram 0 minutes ago
Archie Manning's Enduring Influence: How the Patriarch Shaped Ar…
dallasnews 0 minutes ago
Gerald McCoy Blasts Jerry Jones for Prioritizing Talent Over Sch…
newsweek 5 hours, 41 minutes ago
Colorado Buffaloes' NFL Draft Hopes Dim for Five Players Amid Th…
si 5 hours, 50 minutes ago
Rams Poised for Winning Streak After Bills Clash, Schedule Offer…
yahoo 18 hours, 19 minutes ago