Home / NFL Projections NFL / Jets @ Saints NYJ @ NO

NEW YORK

JETSNYJ

3-11  |  Road

6
FINAL
Sun, Dec 21 • 1:00 PM ET
Caesars Superdome
View Odds Details →

NEW ORLEANS

SAINTSNO

4-10  |  Home

29
Key Game
Demario Davis
KEY GAME

Demario Davis

#56 | Linebacker
@
Charlie Smyth
KEY GAME

Charlie Smyth

#39 | Place kicker
Player
Demario Davis None-None
Charlie Smyth None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
JETS
100%
📊
SAINTS
0%
JETS --
SAINTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
30.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
NEW ORLEANS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (New Orleans)
JetsNYJ (-3.5) 0 SaintsNO (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Jets Cover

23.8%

Saints Cover

76.2%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around NO -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NO)

NYJ By 1-6 points

10.7%

NYJ By 7-13 points

7.3%

NO By 1-6 points

15.3%

NO By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
10
NEW YORK
20
NEW ORLEANS
Simulated Score
20
NEW YORK
24
NEW ORLEANS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Saints Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Saints Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Saints (-6.5) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim Saints (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u40.5 Win
Proj Total: 30.0
D
Sim u40.5 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 21, 2025 NYJ @ NO 6 - 29
Dec 12, 2021 NO @ NYJ 30 - 9
Dec 17, 2017 NYJ @ NO 19 - 31
Nov 3, 2013 NO @ NYJ 20 - 26
Oct 4, 2009 NYJ @ NO 10 - 24
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +24.3% more
New Orleans: 184.6 vs New York: 148.5
First Downs (L5) +21.0% more
New Orleans: 17.5 vs New York: 14.5
Total Yards (L5) +14.6% more
New Orleans: 285.7 vs New York: 249.3
Yards Per Play (L5) +10.2% more
New Orleans: 4.6 vs New York: 4.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYJ Score 10.0 6
NO Score 20.0 29
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
15%TICKETS85%
30%MONEY70%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
27%MONEY73%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
77%MONEY23%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYJ
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +1.9
NO
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -5.8 ATS +/-: -3.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYJ Advantage
2-1-1 (66.7%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +1.9
NO
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -5.8 ATS +/-: -3.1
⚖️ Over/Under
NYJ
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -4.3
NO
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +11.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NO
NYJ
NO
NYJ
ML
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
ATS
0% 0-4
33% 1-2-1
50% 2-2
33% 1-2-1
TTL
0% 0-4
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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