Home / NFL Projections NFL / Buccaneers @ Panthers TB @ CAR

TAMPA BAY

BUCCANEERSTB

7-7  |  Road

20
FINAL
Sun, Dec 21 • 1:00 PM ET
Bank of America Stadium
View Odds Details →

CAROLINA

PANTHERSCAR

7-7  |  Home

23
Key Game
A'Shawn Robinson
KEY GAME

A'Shawn Robinson

#91 | Defensive Tackle
@
Sam Martin
KEY GAME

Sam Martin

#6 | Punter
Player
A'Shawn Robinson None-None
Sam Martin None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BUCCANEERS
100%
📊
PANTHERS
0%
BUCCANEERS --
PANTHERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
58.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
CAROLINA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Carolina)
BuccaneersTB (-3.5) 0 PanthersCAR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Buccaneers Cover

38.8%

Panthers Cover

61.2%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around CAR -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CAR)

TB By 1-6 points

14.7%

TB By 7-13 points

12.1%

CAR By 1-6 points

17.0%

CAR By 7-13 points

18.0%

AI Model Projected Score
27
TAMPA BAY
31
CAROLINA
Simulated Score
17
TAMPA BAY
24
CAROLINA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Panthers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Panthers Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Panthers (+3) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim Panthers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o45.5 Loss
Proj Total: 58.0
D
Sim u45.5 Win
Proj Total: 41.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 3, 2026 CAR @ TB 14 - 16
Dec 21, 2025 TB @ CAR 20 - 23
Dec 29, 2024 CAR @ TB 14 - 48
Dec 1, 2024 TB @ CAR 26 - 23
Jan 7, 2024 TB @ CAR 9 - 0
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +32.0% more
Carolina: 201.3 vs Tampa Bay: 152.5
Yards Per Play (L5) +18.5% more
Carolina: 5.4 vs Tampa Bay: 4.5
Total Yards (L5) +9.7% more
Carolina: 318.0 vs Tampa Bay: 290.0
Rushing Yards (L5) +15.1% more
Tampa Bay: 137.5 vs Carolina: 116.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TB Score 27.0 20
CAR Score 31.0 23
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
67%MONEY33%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
79%MONEY21%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
85%MONEY15%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -5.9
CAR Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +3.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -5.9
CAR Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +3.6
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.3
CAR
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +11.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CAR
TB
CAR
TB
ML
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
100% 4-0
ATS
75% 3-1
33% 1-2-1
75% 3-1
100% 3-0-1
TTL
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
USC Looks to Build Momentum in Road Test at Penn State
si 30 minutes ago
DeMarvion Overshown Pays Tribute to Jake Ehlinger with Custom Je…
si 37 minutes ago
Cowboys Release TCU Alum Emari Demercado, Activate All-Pro Tyler…
star_telegram 37 minutes ago
Archie Manning's Enduring Influence: How the Patriarch Shaped Ar…
dallasnews 41 minutes ago
Steelers' Michael Pittman Jr. Sidelined Multiple Weeks with Foot…
newsweek 6 hours, 32 minutes ago