Home / NFL Projections NFL / Falcons @ Cardinals ATL @ ARI

ATLANTA

FALCONSATL

5-9  |  Road

26
FINAL
Sun, Dec 21 • 4:05 PM ET
State Farm Stadium
View Odds Details →

ARIZONA

CARDINALSARI

3-11  |  Home

19
Key Game
Brandon Dorlus
KEY GAME

Brandon Dorlus

#54 | Defensive Tackle
@
Chad Ryland
KEY GAME

Chad Ryland

#38 | Place kicker
Player
Brandon Dorlus None-None
Chad Ryland None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
FALCONS
100%
📊
CARDINALS
0%
FALCONS --
CARDINALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
37.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Arizona)
FalconsATL (-3.5) 0 CardinalsARI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Falcons Cover

41.5%

Cardinals Cover

58.5%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around ARI -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARI)

ATL By 1-6 points

15.3%

ATL By 7-13 points

12.9%

ARI By 1-6 points

17.0%

ARI By 7-13 points

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
17
ATLANTA
20
ARIZONA
Simulated Score
23
ATLANTA
27
ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cardinals Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cardinals Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cardinals (+3) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim Cardinals (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u48.5 Win
Proj Total: 37.0
D
Sim u48.5 Win
Proj Total: 50.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 21, 2025 ATL @ ARI 26 - 19
Nov 12, 2023 ATL @ ARI 23 - 25
Jan 1, 2023 ARI @ ATL 19 - 20
Oct 13, 2019 ATL @ ARI 33 - 34
Dec 16, 2018 ARI @ ATL 14 - 40
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +49.6% more
Arizona: 280.6 vs Atlanta: 187.6
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +16.0% more
Arizona: 0.4 vs Atlanta: 0.2
First Downs (L5) +12.9% more
Arizona: 20.9 vs Atlanta: 18.5
Total Yards (L5) +11.8% more
Arizona: 353.6 vs Atlanta: 316.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ATL Score 17.0 26
ARI Score 20.0 19
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
55%MONEY45%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
31%MONEY69%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
71%MONEY29%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: +4.8
ARI
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -7.5 ATS +/-: -2.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: +4.8
ARI
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -7.5 ATS +/-: -2.8
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.3
ARI
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +5.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARI
ATL
ARI
ATL
ML
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
0% 0-4
ATS
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
0% 0-4
TTL
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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