Home / NFL Projections NFL / Jaguars @ Broncos JAX @ DEN

JACKSONVILLE

JAGUARSJAX

10-4  |  Road

34
FINAL
Sun, Dec 21 • 4:05 PM ET
Empower Field at Mile High
View Odds Details →

DENVER

BRONCOSDEN

12-2  |  Home

20
Key Game
Logan Cooke
KEY GAME

Logan Cooke

#9 | Punter
@
Jeremy Crawshaw
KEY GAME

Jeremy Crawshaw

#16 | Punter
Player
Logan Cooke None-None
Jeremy Crawshaw None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
JAGUARS
0%
📊
BRONCOS
100%
JAGUARS --
BRONCOS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
58.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
JACKSONVILLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Jacksonville)
JaguarsJAX (-3.5) 0 BroncosDEN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Jaguars Cover

76.2%

Broncos Cover

23.8%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around JAX -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (JAX)

JAX By 1-6 points

15.3%

JAX By 7-13 points

19.7%

DEN By 1-6 points

10.7%

DEN By 7-13 points

7.3%

AI Model Projected Score
34
JACKSONVILLE
24
DENVER
Simulated Score
20
JACKSONVILLE
24
DENVER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Jaguars Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Broncos Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Jaguars (-3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim Broncos (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o46.5 Win
Proj Total: 58.0
D
Sim u46.5 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2026 JAX @ DEN 13 - 20
Dec 21, 2025 JAX @ DEN 34 - 20
Oct 30, 2022 DEN @ JAX 21 - 17
Sep 19, 2021 DEN @ JAX 23 - 13
Sep 29, 2019 JAX @ DEN 26 - 24
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +48.8% more
Jacksonville: 1.3 vs Denver: 0.6
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +11.0% more
Denver: 0.5 vs Jacksonville: 0.4
Net Passing Yards (L5) +9.7% more
Denver: 235.5 vs Jacksonville: 214.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
JAX Score 34.0 34
DEN Score 24.0 20
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
27%TICKETS73%
36%MONEY64%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
48%MONEY52%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
68%MONEY32%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
JAX Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 12.8 ATS +/-: +11.1
DEN
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -4.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
JAX Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 12.8 ATS +/-: +11.1
DEN
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -4.6
⚖️ Over/Under
JAX
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -7.1
DEN
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEN
JAX
DEN
JAX
ML
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
ATS
100% 4-0
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
TTL
50% 2-2
100% 4-0
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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