Home / NFL Projections NFL / Raiders @ Texans LV @ HOU

LAS VEGAS

RAIDERSLV

2-12  |  Road

21
FINAL
Sun, Dec 21 • 4:25 PM ET
NRG Stadium
View Odds Details →

HOUSTON

TEXANSHOU

9-5  |  Home

23
Key Game
AJ Cole
KEY GAME

AJ Cole

#6 | Punter
@
Ka'imi Fairbairn
KEY GAME

Ka'imi Fairbairn

#15 | Place kicker
Player
AJ Cole None-None
Ka'imi Fairbairn None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
RAIDERS
100%
📊
TEXANS
0%
RAIDERS --
TEXANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
47.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Houston)
RaidersLV (-3.5) 0 TexansHOU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Raiders Cover

30.9%

Texans Cover

69.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around HOU -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)

LV By 1-6 points

12.9%

LV By 7-13 points

9.6%

HOU By 1-6 points

16.5%

HOU By 7-13 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
20
LAS VEGAS
27
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
20
LAS VEGAS
24
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Texans Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Texans Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Texans (+14.5) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim Texans (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o39.5 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
D
Sim u39.5 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 21, 2025 LV @ HOU 21 - 23
Oct 23, 2022 HOU @ LV 20 - 38
Oct 27, 2019 LV @ HOU 24 - 27
Jan 7, 2017 LV @ HOU 14 - 27
Nov 21, 2016 HOU @ LV 20 - 27
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +111.8% more
Houston: 97.5 vs Las Vegas: 46.0
Total Yards (L5) +41.1% more
Houston: 311.3 vs Las Vegas: 220.5
Net Passing Yards (L5) +22.5% more
Houston: 213.8 vs Las Vegas: 174.5
First Downs (L5) +19.5% more
Houston: 18.4 vs Las Vegas: 15.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LV Score 20.0 21
HOU Score 27.0 23
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
35%MONEY65%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
59%MONEY41%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
81%MONEY19%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LV Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 7.8 ATS +/-: +10.4
HOU
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -6.3 ATS +/-: -7.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LV Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 7.8 ATS +/-: +10.4
HOU
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -6.3 ATS +/-: -7.6
⚖️ Over/Under
LV
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +5.8
HOU
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
LV
HOU
LV
ML
0% 0-4
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
ATS
0% 0-4
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
TTL
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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