Home / NFL Projections NFL / Steelers @ Lions PIT @ DET

PITTSBURGH

STEELERSPIT

8-6  |  Road

29
FINAL
Sun, Dec 21 • 4:25 PM ET
Ford Field
View Odds Details →

DETROIT

LIONSDET

8-6  |  Home

24
Key Game
Chris Boswell
KEY GAME

Chris Boswell

#9 | Place kicker
@
Jack Fox
KEY GAME

Jack Fox

#3 | Punter
Player
Chris Boswell None-None
Jack Fox None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
STEELERS
100%
📊
LIONS
0%
STEELERS --
LIONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
47.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Detroit)
SteelersPIT (-3.5) 0 LionsDET (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Steelers Cover

30.9%

Lions Cover

69.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around DET -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)

PIT By 1-6 points

12.9%

PIT By 7-13 points

9.6%

DET By 1-6 points

16.5%

DET By 7-13 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
20
PITTSBURGH
27
DETROIT
Simulated Score
20
PITTSBURGH
23
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Lions Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lions Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Lions (+7.5) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim Lions (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u52.0 Loss
Proj Total: 47.0
D
Sim u52.0 Win
Proj Total: 43.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 21, 2025 PIT @ DET 29 - 24
Nov 14, 2021 DET @ PIT 16 - 16
Oct 29, 2017 PIT @ DET 20 - 15
Nov 17, 2013 DET @ PIT 27 - 37
Oct 11, 2009 PIT @ DET 28 - 20
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +72.1% more
Detroit: 135.1 vs Pittsburgh: 78.5
Total Yards (L5) +42.7% more
Detroit: 399.5 vs Pittsburgh: 280.1
First Downs (L5) +34.4% more
Detroit: 20.1 vs Pittsburgh: 15.0
Net Passing Yards (L5) +31.2% more
Detroit: 264.5 vs Pittsburgh: 201.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PIT Score 20.0 29
DET Score 27.0 24
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
17%TICKETS83%
35%MONEY65%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
42%MONEY58%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
73%MONEY27%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.5 ATS +/-: -2.9
DET
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: -5.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.5 ATS +/-: -2.9
DET
0-3-1 (0.0%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: -5.3
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.4
DET
4-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +10.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
PIT
DET
PIT
ML
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
ATS
33% 1-2-1
50% 2-2
67% 2-1-1
25% 1-3
TTL
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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