Home / NFL Projections NFL / Patriots @ Ravens NE @ BAL

NEW ENGLAND

PATRIOTSNE

11-3  |  Road

28
FINAL
Sun, Dec 21 • 8:20 PM ET
M&T Bank Stadium
View Odds Details →

BALTIMORE

RAVENSBAL

7-7  |  Home

24
Key Game
Dre'Mont Jones
KEY GAME

Dre'Mont Jones

#5 | Defensive End
@
Tyler Loop
KEY GAME

Tyler Loop

#33 | Place kicker
Player
Dre'Mont Jones None-None
Tyler Loop None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
PATRIOTS
100%
📊
RAVENS
0%
PATRIOTS --
RAVENS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
41.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Baltimore)
PatriotsNE (-3.5) 0 RavensBAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Patriots Cover

47.2%

Ravens Cover

52.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around BAL -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)

NE By 1-6 points

16.1%

NE By 7-13 points

14.6%

BAL By 1-6 points

16.7%

BAL By 7-13 points

16.1%

AI Model Projected Score
20
NEW ENGLAND
21
BALTIMORE
Simulated Score
24
NEW ENGLAND
20
BALTIMORE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Ravens Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Patriots Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Ravens (+3.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Patriots (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u48.0 Loss
Proj Total: 41.0
D
Sim u48.0 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 21, 2025 NE @ BAL 28 - 24
Sep 25, 2022 BAL @ NE 37 - 26
Nov 15, 2020 BAL @ NE 17 - 23
Nov 3, 2019 NE @ BAL 20 - 37
Dec 12, 2016 BAL @ NE 23 - 30
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +128.0% more
Baltimore: 1.9 vs New England: 0.6
Rushing Yards (L5) +41.3% more
Baltimore: 162.0 vs New England: 114.7
Net Passing Yards (L5) +29.3% more
New England: 267.8 vs Baltimore: 189.3
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +10.0% more
New England: 0.4 vs Baltimore: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NE Score 20.0 28
BAL Score 21.0 24
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
73%MONEY27%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
56%MONEY44%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
51%MONEY49%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NE
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -0.9
BAL Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NE Advantage
2-1-1 (66.7%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -0.9
BAL
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
NE
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -10.0
BAL
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +5.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAL
NE
BAL
NE
ML
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
ATS
33% 1-2-1
33% 1-2-1
100% 3-0-1
33% 1-2-1
TTL
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
0% 0-4
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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