Home / NFL Projections NFL / Packers @ Bears GB @ CHI

GREEN BAY

PACKERSGB

9-4-1  |  Road

16
FINAL
Sat, Dec 20 • 8:20 PM ET
Soldier Field
View Odds Details →

CHICAGO

BEARSCHI

10-4  |  Home

22
Key Game
Bo Melton
KEY GAME

Bo Melton

#16 | Wide Receiver
@
Tory Taylor
KEY GAME

Tory Taylor

#19 | Punter
Player
Bo Melton None-None
Tory Taylor None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
PACKERS
0%
📊
BEARS
100%
PACKERS --
BEARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
52.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
GREEN BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Green Bay)
PackersGB (-3.5) 0 BearsCHI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Packers Cover

55.7%

Bears Cover

44.3%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around GB -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GB)

GB By 1-6 points

16.9%

GB By 7-13 points

16.8%

CHI By 1-6 points

15.7%

CHI By 7-13 points

13.8%

AI Model Projected Score
27
GREEN BAY
25
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
23
GREEN BAY
27
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Packers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bears Win
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Packers (-1) Loss
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim Bears (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o44.5 Loss
Proj Total: 52.0
D
Sim u44.5 Win
Proj Total: 50.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 10, 2026 GB @ CHI 27 - 31
Dec 20, 2025 GB @ CHI 16 - 22
Dec 7, 2025 CHI @ GB 21 - 28
Jan 5, 2025 CHI @ GB 24 - 22
Nov 17, 2024 GB @ CHI 20 - 19
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +41.5% more
Green Bay: 1.1 vs Chicago: 0.6
Net Passing Yards (L5) +9.7% more
Green Bay: 221.2 vs Chicago: 199.7
Yards Per Play (L5) +8.3% more
Green Bay: 5.8 vs Chicago: 5.3
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +8.0% more
Green Bay: 0.5 vs Chicago: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GB Score 27.0 16
CHI Score 25.0 22
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.0 / 18.9 20.0 / 24.0
Net Passing Yards 199.7 / 221.2 250.0 / 192.0
Rushing Yards 162.1 / 119.9 150.0 / 192.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.5 0.18 / 0.5
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.4 / 0.6
Total Yards 361.7 / 341.1 400.0 / 384.0
Turnovers 0.6 / 1.1 0.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 5.3 / 5.8 6.7 / 5.5
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
27%MONEY73%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
38%MONEY62%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
50%MONEY50%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GB
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -10.0
CHI Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 11.8 ATS +/-: +9.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GB
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -10.0
CHI Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 11.8 ATS +/-: +9.9
⚖️ Over/Under
GB
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +1.5
CHI
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHI
GB
CHI
GB
ML
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
ATS
75% 3-1
0% 0-3-1
100% 4-0
33% 1-2-1
TTL
0% 0-4
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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