Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Lakers @ Orange MERC @ SYR

MERCYHURST

LAKERSMERC

4-7  |  Road

62
FINAL
Wed, Dec 17 • 7:00 PM ET
JMA Wireless Dome
View Odds Details →

SYRACUSE

ORANGESYR

6-4  |  Home

76
AI Model Win Probability
LAKERS
100%
📊
ORANGE
0%
LAKERS --
ORANGE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
103.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-23.0
SYRACUSE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +23.0 points (Syracuse)
LakersMERC (-3.5) 0 OrangeSYR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lakers Cover

1.1%

Orange Cover

98.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SYR -23.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SYR)

MERC By 1-7 points

0.8%

MERC By 8-14 points

0.1%

SYR By 1-7 points

4.8%

SYR By 8-14 points

13.7%

AI Model Projected Score
40
MERCYHURST
63
SYRACUSE
Simulated Score
55
MERCYHURST
88
SYRACUSE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Orange Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Orange Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Orange (+24.5) Win
Proj Spread: -23.0
D
Sim Orange (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -33.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u131.5 Loss
Proj Total: 103.0
D
Sim u131.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 17, 2025 MERC @ SYR 62 - 76
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +49.9% more
Syracuse: 7.1 vs Mercyhurst: 4.8
Rebounding (L5) +20.8% more
Syracuse: 33.8 vs Mercyhurst: 28.0
Free Throw % (L5) +12.7%
Syracuse: 56.8% vs Mercyhurst: 44.1%
Turnovers (L5) +12.6% more
Syracuse: 11.1 vs Mercyhurst: 9.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MERC Score 40.0 62
SYR Score 63.0 76
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.7 / 33.4 24.0 / 28.0
Assists 12.1 / 13.9 12.0 / 14.0
Blocks 7.1 / 4.8 8.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 44.4 / 43.9 49.0 / 40.0
Free Throw % 56.8 / 44.1 75.0 / 70.0
Rebounding 33.8 / 28.0 39.0 / 32.0
Steals 6.6 / 7.0 6.0 / 11.0
Turnovers 11.1 / 9.9 16.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
24%TICKETS76%
11%MONEY89%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
28%MONEY72%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MERC Advantage
17-17-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 2.0 ATS +/-: +2.4
SYR
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-: -1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MERC Advantage
21-11-0 (65.6%)
Margin: 2.0 ATS +/-: +2.4
SYR
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-: -1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
MERC
16-16-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +1.7
SYR
17-14-1
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2% Total +/-: +1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SYR
MERC
SYR
MERC
ML
78% 25-7
59% 20-14
69% 22-10
79% 26-7
ATS
69% 22-10
62% 21-13
69% 22-10
79% 26-7
TTL
66% 21-11
53% 18-16
100% 32-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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