UTSA
ROADRUNNERSUTSA
4-6 | Road
70
USC
TROJANSUSC
10-1 | Home
97
AI Model Win Probability
ROADRUNNERS
100%
TROJANS
0%
ROADRUNNERS
--
TROJANS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
77.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
USC
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (USC)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around USC -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USC)
UTSA By 1-7 points
24.3%
UTSA By 8-14 points
13.7%
USC By 1-7 points
26.2%
USC By 8-14 points
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
UTSA
38
UTSA
USC
39
USC
Simulated Score
UTSA
68
UTSA
USC
82
USC
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Trojans
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Trojans
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Trojans (+24.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim
Trojans (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u156.5
Loss
Proj Total: 77.0
D
Sim
u156.5
Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 17, 2025
UTSA @ USC
70 - 97
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+23.7% more
USC: 14.2
vs
UTSA: 11.5
Free Throw % (L5)
+16.8%
USC: 76.9%
vs
UTSA: 60.2%
Field Goal % (L5)
+11.2%
USC: 47.8%
vs
UTSA: 36.6%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+2.9%
USC: 32.2%
vs
UTSA: 29.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UTSA Score
38.0
70
USC Score
39.0
97
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.2 / 29.2
39.0 / 26.0
Assists
14.2 / 11.5
18.0 / 12.0
Blocks
4.7 / 4.7
6.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
47.8 / 36.6
55.0 / 35.0
Free Throw %
76.9 / 60.2
79.0 / 83.0
Rebounding
34.6 / 38.6
33.0 / 34.0
Steals
4.8 / 6.3
12.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
13.5 / 14.0
11.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTSA
5-25-0
(16.7%)
Margin: -11.3
ATS +/-: -3.9
USC
Advantage
18-14-0
(56.3%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: -3.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTSA
10-18-0
(35.7%)
Margin: -11.3
ATS +/-: -3.9
USC
Advantage
13-18-0
(41.9%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: -3.5
⚖️ Over/Under
UTSA
14-14-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -1.2
USC
17-14-0
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2%
Total +/-: +2.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USC
UTSA
USC
UTSA
ML
52%
16-15
83%
24-5
58%
18-13
48%
14-15
ATS
68%
21-10
72%
21-8
58%
18-13
50%
15-15
TTL
68%
21-10
66%
19-10
100%
31-0
100%
30-0
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