SAM HOUSTON
BEARKATSSHSU
6-3 | Road
85
OREGON STATE
BEAVERSORST
6-5 | Home
75
AI Model Win Probability
BEARKATS
100%
BEAVERS
0%
BEARKATS
--
BEAVERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
79.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
OREGON STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Oregon State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ORST -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ORST)
SHSU By 1-7 points
24.3%
SHSU By 8-14 points
13.7%
ORST By 1-7 points
26.2%
ORST By 8-14 points
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Sam Houston
39
SAM HOUSTON
Oregon State
40
OREGON STATE
Simulated Score
Sam Houston
67
SAM HOUSTON
Oregon State
73
OREGON STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Beavers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Beavers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Beavers (+4.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim
Beavers (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u150.5
Loss
Proj Total: 79.0
D
Sim
u150.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 17, 2025
SHSU @ ORST
85 - 75
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+153.5% more
Oregon State: 7.0
vs
Sam Houston: 2.8
Free Throw % (L5)
+6.2%
Oregon State: 81.6%
vs
Sam Houston: 75.4%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+2.6%
Oregon State: 36.7%
vs
Sam Houston: 34.1%
Rebounding (L5)
+21.1% more
Sam Houston: 41.4
vs
Oregon State: 32.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SHSU Score
39.0
85
ORST Score
40.0
75
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.7 / 34.1
26.0 / 37.0
Assists
13.4 / 16.4
13.0 / 18.0
Blocks
7.0 / 2.8
2.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
45.7 / 45.7
44.0 / 45.0
Free Throw %
81.6 / 75.4
74.0 / 74.0
Rebounding
32.7 / 41.4
26.0 / 46.0
Steals
6.6 / 7.9
7.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
11.9 / 12.5
11.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SHSU
Advantage
22-12-0
(64.7%)
Margin: 7.1
ATS +/-: +3.5
ORST
17-16-0
(51.5%)
Margin: -3.0
ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SHSU
Advantage
20-11-0
(64.5%)
Margin: 7.1
ATS +/-: +3.5
ORST
16-17-0
(48.5%)
Margin: -3.0
ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
SHSU
18-13-0
O: 58.1% / U: 41.9%
Total +/-: +2.2
ORST
19-14-0
O: 57.6% / U: 42.4%
Total +/-: +1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ORST
SHSU
ORST
SHSU
ML
45%
15-18
55%
18-15
59%
19-13
74%
23-8
ATS
48%
16-17
64%
21-12
59%
19-13
74%
23-8
TTL
55%
18-15
48%
16-17
100%
32-0
100%
31-0
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