Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Falcons @ Aztecs AF @ SDSU

AIR FORCE

FALCONSAF

3-8  |  Road

58
FINAL
Wed, Dec 17 • 10:00 PM ET
Viejas Arena
View Odds Details →

SAN DIEGO STATE

AZTECSSDSU

5-3  |  Home

81
AI Model Win Probability
FALCONS
100%
📊
AZTECS
0%
FALCONS --
AZTECS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
79.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
SAN DIEGO STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (San Diego State)
FalconsAF (-3.5) 0 AztecsSDSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Falcons Cover

46.0%

Aztecs Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SDSU -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SDSU)

AF By 1-7 points

24.3%

AF By 8-14 points

13.7%

SDSU By 1-7 points

26.2%

SDSU By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
39
AIR FORCE
40
SAN DIEGO STATE
Simulated Score
61
AIR FORCE
78
SAN DIEGO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Aztecs Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Aztecs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Aztecs (+4.5) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Aztecs (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u150.5 Win
Proj Total: 79.0
D
Sim u150.5 Win
Proj Total: 139.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 7, 2026 SDSU @ AF 88 - 54
Dec 17, 2025 AF @ SDSU 58 - 81
Jan 22, 2025 SDSU @ AF 77 - 76
Jan 8, 2025 AF @ SDSU 38 - 67
Feb 6, 2024 SDSU @ AF 77 - 64
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +52.0% more
San Diego State: 7.7 vs Air Force: 5.1
Assists (L5) +29.8% more
San Diego State: 15.0 vs Air Force: 11.6
Blocks (L5) +23.6% more
San Diego State: 4.8 vs Air Force: 3.9
Rebounding (L5) +23.1% more
San Diego State: 35.7 vs Air Force: 29.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
AF Score 39.0 58
SDSU Score 40.0 81
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.9 / 25.6 45.0 / 33.0
Assists 15.0 / 11.6 27.0 / 9.0
Blocks 4.8 / 3.9 5.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 47.7 / 43.6 51.0 / 41.0
Free Throw % 77.6 / 62.8 69.0 / 75.0
Rebounding 35.7 / 29.0 35.0 / 26.0
Steals 7.7 / 5.1 8.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 13.2 / 11.7 11.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
3%MONEY97%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
54%MONEY46%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
55%MONEY45%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
AF
3-29-0 (9.4%)
Margin: -18.3 ATS +/-: -4.9
SDSU Advantage
22-11-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: -0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
AF
10-21-1 (32.3%)
Margin: -18.3 ATS +/-: -4.9
SDSU Advantage
15-16-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: -0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
AF
19-13-0
O: 59.4% / U: 40.6% Total +/-: +0.2
SDSU
15-16-0
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6% Total +/-: +5.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SDSU
AF
SDSU
AF
ML
62% 20-12
81% 26-6
72% 23-9
62% 20-12
ATS
69% 22-10
69% 22-10
72% 23-9
62% 20-12
TTL
75% 24-8
69% 22-10
100% 32-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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