UC MERCED
BOBCATSUC ME
0-0 | Road
42
SAINT MARY'S
GAELSSMC
6-0 | Home
96
AI Model Win Probability
BOBCATS
50%
GAELS
50%
BOBCATS
--
GAELS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
131.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
50%
Under 0
50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
SAINT MARY'S
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Saint Mary's)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SMC -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SMC)
UC ME By 1-7 points
24.3%
UC ME By 8-14 points
13.7%
SMC By 1-7 points
26.2%
SMC By 8-14 points
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
UC Merced
65
UC MERCED
Saint Mary's
66
SAINT MARY'S
Simulated Score
UC Merced
38
UC MERCED
Saint Mary's
87
SAINT MARY'S
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
50% Win Prob
D
Sim
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim
Gaels (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -49.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
131
Proj Total: 131.0
D
Sim
o163.5
Win
Proj Total: 125.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 22, 2025
UC ME @ SMC
42 - 96
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+117.4% more
Saint Mary's: 5.1
vs
UC Merced: 2.4
Assists (L5)
+88.7% more
Saint Mary's: 17.0
vs
UC Merced: 9.0
Steals (L5)
+51.1% more
Saint Mary's: 5.5
vs
UC Merced: 3.6
Rebounding (L5)
+36.4% more
Saint Mary's: 43.1
vs
UC Merced: 31.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UC ME Score
65.0
42
SMC Score
66.0
96
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
43.3 / 32.4
46.0 / 14.0
Assists
17.0 / 9.0
19.0 / 8.0
Blocks
5.1 / 2.4
5.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
47.8 / 36.3
50.0 / 28.0
Free Throw %
78.4 / 70.8
69.0 / 67.0
Rebounding
43.1 / 31.6
49.0 / 30.0
Steals
5.5 / 3.6
10.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
12.3 / 12.9
8.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UC ME
--
SMC
Advantage
27-6-0
(81.8%)
Margin: 12.8
ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UC ME
--
SMC
Advantage
19-13-0
(59.4%)
Margin: 12.8
ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
UC ME
--
SMC
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3%
Total +/-: -1.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SMC
UC ME
SMC
UC ME
ML
56%
18-14
--
0-0
82%
23-5
--
0-0
ATS
62%
20-12
--
0-0
83%
24-5
100%
1-0
TTL
53%
17-15
--
0-0
100%
29-0
100%
1-0
Contextual Game News
