Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bulls @ Crimson Tide USF @ ALA

SOUTH FLORIDA

BULLSUSF

6-4  |  Road

93
FINAL
Wed, Dec 17 • 8:00 PM ET
Coleman Coliseum
View Odds Details →

ALABAMA

CRIMSON TIDEALA

7-3  |  Home

104
AI Model Win Probability
BULLS
100%
📊
CRIMSON TIDE
0%
BULLS --
CRIMSON TIDE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
77.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
ALABAMA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Alabama)
BullsUSF (-3.5) 0 Crimson TideALA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bulls Cover

46.0%

Crimson Tide Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ALA -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ALA)

USF By 1-7 points

24.3%

USF By 8-14 points

13.7%

ALA By 1-7 points

26.2%

ALA By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
38
SOUTH FLORIDA
39
ALABAMA
Simulated Score
68
SOUTH FLORIDA
82
ALABAMA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Crimson Tide Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Crimson Tide Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Crimson Tide (+14.5) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Crimson Tide (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u177.5 Loss
Proj Total: 77.0
D
Sim u177.5 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 17, 2025 USF @ ALA 93 - 104
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +93.9% more
Alabama: 9.9 vs South Florida: 5.1
Assists (L5) +10.7% more
Alabama: 17.0 vs South Florida: 15.4
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +5.1%
Alabama: 35.7% vs South Florida: 30.6%
Free Throw % (L5) +4.7%
Alabama: 76.3% vs South Florida: 71.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
USF Score 38.0 93
ALA Score 39.0 104
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.7 / 30.6 39.0 / 33.0
Assists 17.0 / 15.4 14.0 / 15.0
Blocks 9.9 / 5.1 7.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 46.0 / 41.7 45.0 / 39.0
Free Throw % 76.3 / 71.6 83.0 / 79.0
Rebounding 41.9 / 42.0 45.0 / 46.0
Steals 6.6 / 9.0 11.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 10.8 / 11.4 14.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
5%MONEY95%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
11%TICKETS89%
21%MONEY79%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
87%MONEY13%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USF Advantage
25-9-0 (73.5%)
Margin: 11.7 ATS +/-: +1.9
ALA
25-10-0 (71.4%)
Margin: 8.5 ATS +/-: +1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USF Advantage
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 11.7 ATS +/-: +1.9
ALA
15-19-0 (44.1%)
Margin: 8.5 ATS +/-: +1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
USF
15-18-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +1.0
ALA
17-16-1
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ALA
USF
ALA
USF
ML
63% 22-13
61% 20-13
58% 19-14
52% 16-15
ATS
60% 21-14
61% 20-13
58% 19-14
52% 16-15
TTL
63% 22-13
52% 17-16
100% 33-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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