Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Patriots @ Lions ABU @ ETAM

ARLINGTON BAPTIST

PATRIOTSABU

0-0  |  Road

60
FINAL
Mon, Nov 3 • 11:30 AM ET
The Field House
View Odds Details →

EAST TEXAS A&M

LIONSETAM

1-0  |  Home

119
AI Model Win Probability
PATRIOTS
100%
📊
LIONS
0%
PATRIOTS --
LIONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
143.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-69.0
EAST TEXAS A&M
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +69.0 points (East Texas A&M)
PatriotsABU (-3.5) 0 LionsETAM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Patriots Cover

0.0%

Lions Cover

100.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ETAM -69.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ETAM)

ABU By 1-7 points

0.0%

ABU By 8-14 points

0.0%

ETAM By 1-7 points

0.0%

ETAM By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
37
ARLINGTON BAPTIST
106
EAST TEXAS A&M
Simulated Score
63
ARLINGTON BAPTIST
85
EAST TEXAS A&M
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Lions Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lions Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Lions (+21.5) Win
Proj Spread: -69.0
D
Sim Lions (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -22.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u153.5 Loss
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Sim u153.5 Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 3, 2025 ABU @ ETAM 60 - 119
Dec 18, 2023 ABU @ ETAM 53 - 130
Nov 28, 2022 ABU @ ETAM 46 - 101
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +141.2% more
East Texas A&M: 5.3 vs Arlington Baptist: 2.2
Assists (L5) +112.7% more
East Texas A&M: 16.1 vs Arlington Baptist: 7.6
Rebounding (L5) +19.6% more
East Texas A&M: 31.7 vs Arlington Baptist: 26.5
Steals (L5) +12.5% more
East Texas A&M: 8.9 vs Arlington Baptist: 7.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ABU Score 37.0 60
ETAM Score 106.0 119
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.8 / 24.8 39.0 / 27.0
Assists 16.1 / 7.6 35.0 / 9.0
Blocks 5.3 / 2.2 4.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 41.4 / 30.2 63.0 / 33.0
Free Throw % 66.9 / 65.5 67.0 / 80.0
Rebounding 31.7 / 26.5 42.0 / 27.0
Steals 8.9 / 7.9 17.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 11.5 / 22.0 12.0 / 26.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ABU
--
ETAM Advantage
11-21-0 (34.4%)
Margin: -4.3 ATS +/-: -1.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ABU
--
ETAM Advantage
14-16-0 (46.7%)
Margin: -4.3 ATS +/-: -1.7
⚖️ Over/Under
ABU
--
ETAM
14-16-0
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3% Total +/-: -1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ETAM
ABU
ETAM
ABU
ML
52% 13-12
50% 1-1
62% 15-9
100% 2-0
ATS
56% 14-11
50% 1-1
62% 15-9
100% 2-0
TTL
68% 17-8
50% 1-1
100% 24-0
100% 2-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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