OMAHA
MAVERICKSOMA
0-1 | Road
77
MURRAY STATE
RACERSMUR
1-0 | Home
85
AI Model Win Probability
MAVERICKS
100%
RACERS
0%
MAVERICKS
--
RACERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
155.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
MURRAY STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Murray State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MUR -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MUR)
OMA By 1-7 points
21.6%
OMA By 8-14 points
10.7%
MUR By 1-7 points
27.2%
MUR By 8-14 points
20.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Omaha
76
OMAHA
Murray State
79
MURRAY STATE
Simulated Score
Omaha
72
OMAHA
Murray State
78
MURRAY STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Racers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Racers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Racers (+5)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim
Racers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o154.0
Win
Proj Total: 155.0
D
Sim
u154.0
Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 3, 2025
OMA @ MUR
77 - 85
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+86.5% more
Murray State: 3.0
vs
Omaha: 1.6
Turnovers (L5)
+12.3% more
Murray State: 10.3
vs
Omaha: 9.2
Free Throw % (L5)
+4.0%
Murray State: 73.8%
vs
Omaha: 69.8%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+3.5%
Murray State: 32.7%
vs
Omaha: 29.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
OMA Score
76.0
77
MUR Score
79.0
85
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.7 / 29.1
28.0 / 33.0
Assists
13.0 / 12.9
12.0 / 6.0
Blocks
3.0 / 1.6
4.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
38.6 / 42.2
39.0 / 47.0
Free Throw %
73.8 / 69.8
91.0 / 72.0
Rebounding
35.4 / 41.9
36.0 / 35.0
Steals
5.9 / 5.7
8.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
10.3 / 9.2
14.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OMA
16-17-0
(48.5%)
Margin: -0.5
ATS +/-: +0.1
MUR
Advantage
20-13-0
(60.6%)
Margin: 2.9
ATS +/-: -2.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OMA
Advantage
14-15-0
(48.3%)
Margin: -0.5
ATS +/-: +0.1
MUR
14-19-0
(42.4%)
Margin: 2.9
ATS +/-: -2.3
⚖️ Over/Under
OMA
14-14-1
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -0.6
MUR
19-14-0
O: 57.6% / U: 42.4%
Total +/-: +4.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MUR
OMA
MUR
OMA
ML
58%
19-14
79%
26-7
61%
20-13
67%
22-11
ATS
52%
17-16
76%
25-8
61%
20-13
67%
22-11
TTL
70%
23-10
73%
24-9
100%
33-0
100%
33-0
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