VERMONT STATE - JOHNSON
BADGERSVTSJ
0-0 | Road
55
CENTRAL CONNECTICUT
BLUE DEVILSCCSU
1-0 | Home
117
AI Model Win Probability
BADGERS
100%
BLUE DEVILS
0%
BADGERS
--
BLUE DEVILS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
171.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-25.0
CENTRAL CONNECTICUT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +25.0 points (Central Connecticut)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CCSU -25.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CCSU)
VTSJ By 1-7 points
0.5%
VTSJ By 8-14 points
0.1%
CCSU By 1-7 points
3.3%
CCSU By 8-14 points
10.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Vermont State - Johnson
73
VERMONT STATE - JOHNSON
Central Connecticut
98
CENTRAL CONNECTICUT
Simulated Score
Vermont State - Johnson
45
VERMONT STATE - JOHNSON
Central Connecticut
98
CENTRAL CONNECTICUT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Blue Devils
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Blue Devils
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Blue Devils (+24.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -25.0
D
Sim
Blue Devils (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -53.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o143.5
Win
Proj Total: 171.0
D
Sim
u143.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 3, 2025
VTSJ @ CCSU
55 - 117
Nov 11, 2024
VTSJ @ CCSU
68 - 117
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+259.3% more
Central Connecticut: 4.4
vs
Vermont State - Johnson: 1.2
Steals (L5)
+95.5% more
Central Connecticut: 8.3
vs
Vermont State - Johnson: 4.2
Free Throw % (L5)
+29.8%
Central Connecticut: 81.0%
vs
Vermont State - Johnson: 51.1%
Rebounding (L5)
+13.8% more
Central Connecticut: 37.0
vs
Vermont State - Johnson: 32.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
VTSJ Score
73.0
55
CCSU Score
98.0
117
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.8 / 30.0
39.0 / 29.0
Assists
11.1 / 10.8
28.0 / 11.0
Blocks
4.4 / 1.2
5.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
42.2 / 36.7
60.0 / 33.0
Free Throw %
81.0 / 51.1
82.0 / 44.0
Rebounding
37.0 / 32.5
58.0 / 21.0
Steals
8.3 / 4.2
7.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
13.4 / 16.2
10.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
VTSJ
--
CCSU
Advantage
18-12-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 2.9
ATS +/-: -1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
VTSJ
--
CCSU
Advantage
14-13-1
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.9
ATS +/-: -1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
VTSJ
--
CCSU
15-13-0
O: 53.6% / U: 46.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CCSU
VTSJ
CCSU
VTSJ
ML
57%
17-13
100%
3-0
57%
17-13
100%
3-0
ATS
63%
19-11
100%
3-0
57%
17-13
100%
3-0
TTL
60%
18-12
67%
2-1
100%
30-0
100%
3-0
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