Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Mountaineers @ Chippewas APP @ CMU

APP STATE

MOUNTAINEERSAPP

0-1  |  Road

66
FINAL
Mon, Nov 3 • 7:00 PM ET
McGuirk Arena
View Odds Details →

CENTRAL MICHIGAN

CHIPPEWASCMU

1-0  |  Home

82
AI Model Win Probability
MOUNTAINEERS
100%
📊
CHIPPEWAS
0%
MOUNTAINEERS --
CHIPPEWAS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
165.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
CENTRAL MICHIGAN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Central Michigan)
MountaineersAPP (-3.5) 0 ChippewasCMU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mountaineers Cover

38.2%

Chippewas Cover

61.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CMU -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CMU)

APP By 1-7 points

21.6%

APP By 8-14 points

10.7%

CMU By 1-7 points

27.2%

CMU By 8-14 points

20.1%

AI Model Projected Score
81
APP STATE
84
CENTRAL MICHIGAN
Simulated Score
73
APP STATE
67
CENTRAL MICHIGAN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Chippewas Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mountaineers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Chippewas (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim Mountaineers (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 165.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 3, 2025 APP @ CMU 66 - 82
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +60.4% more
Central Michigan: 7.3 vs App State: 4.6
Assists (L5) +28.6% more
Central Michigan: 11.6 vs App State: 9.1
Turnovers (L5) +19.0% more
Central Michigan: 12.1 vs App State: 10.2
Free Throw % (L5) +9.6%
Central Michigan: 74.3% vs App State: 64.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
APP Score 81.0 66
CMU Score 84.0 82
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.1 / 32.1 44.0 / 37.0
Assists 11.6 / 9.1 16.0 / 13.0
Blocks 3.5 / 3.6 4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 45.9 / 37.3 52.0 / 36.0
Free Throw % 74.3 / 64.6 82.0 / 48.0
Rebounding 35.1 / 35.3 43.0 / 33.0
Steals 7.3 / 4.6 3.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 12.1 / 10.2 12.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
APP Advantage
19-13-0 (59.4%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: +0.9
CMU
10-21-0 (32.3%)
Margin: -3.5 ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
APP Advantage
16-13-1 (55.2%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: +0.9
CMU
15-13-1 (53.6%)
Margin: -3.5 ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
APP
12-18-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -1.2
CMU
13-16-0
O: 44.8% / U: 55.2% Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CMU
APP
CMU
APP
ML
57% 17-13
62% 20-12
70% 21-9
59% 19-13
ATS
67% 20-10
59% 19-13
70% 21-9
59% 19-13
TTL
67% 20-10
69% 22-10
100% 30-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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