Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Fighting Squirrels @ Lancers MARY @ LONG

MARY BALDWIN

FIGHTING SQUIRRELSMARY

0-0  |  Road

55
FINAL
Mon, Nov 3 • 7:00 PM ET
Joan Perry Brock Center
View Odds Details →

LONGWOOD

LANCERSLONG

1-0  |  Home

92
AI Model Win Probability
FIGHTING SQUIRRELS
100%
📊
LANCERS
0%
FIGHTING SQUIRRELS --
LANCERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
132.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
LONGWOOD
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Longwood)
Fighting SquirrelsMARY (-3.5) 0 LancersLONG (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Fighting Squirrels Cover

15.9%

Lancers Cover

84.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around LONG -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LONG)

MARY By 1-7 points

10.7%

MARY By 8-14 points

3.3%

LONG By 1-7 points

23.0%

LONG By 8-14 points

27.2%

AI Model Projected Score
61
MARY BALDWIN
71
LONGWOOD
Simulated Score
41
MARY BALDWIN
92
LONGWOOD
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Lancers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Lancers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Lancers (+157.5) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim Lancers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -51.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u157.5 Win
Proj Total: 132.0
D
Sim u157.5 Win
Proj Total: 133.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 3, 2025 MARY @ LONG 55 - 92
Dec 8, 2024 MARY @ LONG 40 - 97
Nov 25, 2022 MARY @ LONG 60 - 112
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +58.3% more
Longwood: 13.8 vs Mary Baldwin: 8.7
Rebounding (L5) +45.3% more
Longwood: 37.4 vs Mary Baldwin: 25.7
Steals (L5) +25.4% more
Longwood: 8.5 vs Mary Baldwin: 6.8
Free Throw % (L5) +20.5%
Longwood: 73.0% vs Mary Baldwin: 52.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MARY Score 61.0 55
LONG Score 71.0 92
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.2 / 22.4 22.0 / 30.0
Assists 13.8 / 8.7 11.0 / 10.0
Blocks 1.6 / 1.4 5.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 44.0 / 32.6 53.0 / 37.0
Free Throw % 73.0 / 52.5 70.0 / 56.0
Rebounding 37.4 / 25.7 48.0 / 21.0
Steals 8.5 / 6.8 15.0 / 13.0
Turnovers 14.6 / 16.1 20.0 / 23.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MARY
--
LONG Advantage
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.6 ATS +/-: +0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MARY
--
LONG Advantage
13-16-0 (44.8%)
Margin: 3.6 ATS +/-: +0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
MARY
--
LONG
17-12-0
O: 58.6% / U: 41.4% Total +/-: +2.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LONG
MARY
LONG
MARY
ML
65% 20-11
100% 2-0
68% 21-10
100% 2-0
ATS
68% 21-10
100% 2-0
68% 21-10
100% 2-0
TTL
65% 20-11
100% 2-0
100% 31-0
100% 2-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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