MENLO
OAKSMENLO
0-0 | Road
69
UC DAVIS
AGGIESUCD
1-0 | Home
96
AI Model Win Probability
OAKS
100%
AGGIES
0%
OAKS
--
AGGIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
113.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
UC DAVIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (UC Davis)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UCD -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UCD)
MENLO By 1-7 points
21.6%
MENLO By 8-14 points
10.7%
UCD By 1-7 points
27.2%
UCD By 8-14 points
20.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Menlo
55
MENLO
UC Davis
58
UC DAVIS
Simulated Score
Menlo
54
MENLO
UC Davis
88
UC DAVIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Aggies
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Aggies
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Aggies (+21.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim
Aggies (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -34.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u153.5
Loss
Proj Total: 113.0
D
Sim
u153.5
Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 3, 2025
MENLO @ UCD
69 - 96
Nov 12, 2024
MENLO @ UCD
70 - 80
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+45.6% more
UC Davis: 3.3
vs
Menlo: 2.3
Free Throw % (L5)
+18.1%
UC Davis: 77.5%
vs
Menlo: 59.5%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+4.1%
UC Davis: 35.0%
vs
Menlo: 30.9%
Steals (L5)
+17.3% more
Menlo: 7.7
vs
UC Davis: 6.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MENLO Score
55.0
69
UCD Score
58.0
96
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.0 / 30.9
48.0 / 40.0
Assists
12.8 / 12.4
17.0 / 11.0
Blocks
3.3 / 2.3
4.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
41.7 / 40.9
49.0 / 43.0
Free Throw %
77.5 / 59.5
63.0 / 57.0
Rebounding
29.2 / 29.7
40.0 / 35.0
Steals
6.4 / 7.7
15.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
12.8 / 12.0
12.0 / 24.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MENLO
--
UCD
Advantage
19-14-0
(57.6%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MENLO
--
UCD
Advantage
17-14-1
(54.8%)
Margin: 2.5
ATS +/-: +0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
MENLO
--
UCD
18-14-0
O: 56.3% / U: 43.8%
Total +/-: +1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UCD
MENLO
UCD
MENLO
ML
58%
19-14
100%
1-0
64%
21-12
100%
1-0
ATS
61%
20-13
100%
1-0
64%
21-12
100%
1-0
TTL
61%
20-13
0%
0-1
100%
33-0
100%
1-0
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