BRYAN (TN)
LIONSBRTN
0-0 | Road
47
AUSTIN PEAY
GOVERNORSAPSU
1-0 | Home
128
AI Model Win Probability
LIONS
100%
GOVERNORS
0%
LIONS
--
GOVERNORS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
153.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-41.0
AUSTIN PEAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +41.0 points (Austin Peay)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around APSU -41.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (APSU)
BRTN By 1-7 points
0.0%
BRTN By 8-14 points
0.0%
APSU By 1-7 points
0.0%
APSU By 8-14 points
0.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Bryan (TN)
56
BRYAN (TN)
Austin Peay
97
AUSTIN PEAY
Simulated Score
Bryan (TN)
52
BRYAN (TN)
Austin Peay
85
AUSTIN PEAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Governors
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Governors
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Governors (+10.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -41.0
D
Sim
Governors (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -33.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o150.5
Win
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Sim
u150.5
Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 3, 2025
BRTN @ APSU
47 - 128
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+122.4% more
Austin Peay: 3.8
vs
Bryan (TN): 1.7
Assists (L5)
+20.1% more
Austin Peay: 14.1
vs
Bryan (TN): 11.8
Field Goal % (L5)
+11.3%
Austin Peay: 46.0%
vs
Bryan (TN): 34.7%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+6.8%
Austin Peay: 35.8%
vs
Bryan (TN): 28.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BRTN Score
56.0
47
APSU Score
97.0
128
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.8 / 28.9
48.0 / 17.0
Assists
14.1 / 11.8
33.0 / 10.0
Blocks
3.8 / 1.7
5.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
46.0 / 34.7
57.0 / 31.0
Free Throw %
74.0 / 72.0
85.0 / 75.0
Rebounding
33.1 / 36.1
40.0 / 37.0
Steals
5.8 / 6.6
24.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
9.7 / 12.7
10.0 / 36.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BRTN
--
APSU
Advantage
22-9-0
(71.0%)
Margin: 8.4
ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BRTN
--
APSU
Advantage
14-14-1
(50.0%)
Margin: 8.4
ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
BRTN
--
APSU
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7%
Total +/-: +2.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
APSU
BRTN
APSU
BRTN
ML
53%
16-14
100%
4-0
59%
16-11
100%
4-0
ATS
57%
17-13
100%
4-0
59%
16-11
100%
4-0
TTL
57%
17-13
100%
4-0
100%
27-0
100%
4-0
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