Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Banana Slugs @ Dons UCSCRZ @ SF

UC SANTA CRUZ

BANANA SLUGSUCSCRZ

0-0  |  Road

53
FINAL
Mon, Nov 3 • 10:00 PM ET
The Sobrato Center
View Odds Details →

SAN FRANCISCO

DONSSF

1-0  |  Home

98
AI Model Win Probability
BANANA SLUGS
100%
📊
DONS
0%
BANANA SLUGS --
DONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
139.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-15.0
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +15.0 points (San Francisco)
Banana SlugsUCSCRZ (-3.5) 0 DonsSF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Banana Slugs Cover

6.7%

Dons Cover

93.3%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SF -15.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SF)

UCSCRZ By 1-7 points

4.8%

UCSCRZ By 8-14 points

1.1%

SF By 1-7 points

15.3%

SF By 8-14 points

25.3%

AI Model Projected Score
62
UC SANTA CRUZ
77
SAN FRANCISCO
Simulated Score
52
UC SANTA CRUZ
98
SAN FRANCISCO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Dons Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Dons Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Dons (+157.5) Win
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Sim Dons (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -46.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u157.5 Win
Proj Total: 139.0
D
Sim u157.5 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 3, 2025 UCSCRZ @ SF 53 - 98
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +116.0% more
San Francisco: 2.2 vs UC Santa Cruz: 1.0
Assists (L5) +96.7% more
San Francisco: 14.4 vs UC Santa Cruz: 7.3
Rebounding (L5) +45.7% more
San Francisco: 39.8 vs UC Santa Cruz: 27.3
Free Throw % (L5) +11.7%
San Francisco: 72.3% vs UC Santa Cruz: 60.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UCSCRZ Score 62.0 53
SF Score 77.0 98
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.9 / 31.3 39.0 / 29.0
Assists 14.4 / 7.3 25.0 / 10.0
Blocks 2.2 / 1.0 5.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 42.7 / 37.7 54.0 / 34.0
Free Throw % 72.3 / 60.7 93.0 / 71.0
Rebounding 39.8 / 27.3 49.0 / 22.0
Steals 4.7 / 5.7 14.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 10.1 / 21.3 19.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UCSCRZ
--
SF Advantage
17-16-0 (51.5%)
Margin: 1.5 ATS +/-: -2.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UCSCRZ
--
SF Advantage
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: 1.5 ATS +/-: -2.4
⚖️ Over/Under
UCSCRZ
--
SF
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9% Total +/-: +1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SF
UCSCRZ
SF
UCSCRZ
ML
39% 13-20
100% 1-0
64% 21-12
100% 1-0
ATS
42% 14-19
100% 1-0
64% 21-12
100% 1-0
TTL
73% 24-9
100% 1-0
100% 33-0
100% 1-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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