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FRESNO PACIFIC

SUNBIRDSFPU

0-0  |  Road

51
FINAL
Mon, Nov 3 • 10:30 PM ET
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FRESNO STATE

BULLDOGSFRES

1-0  |  Home

88
AI Model Win Probability
SUNBIRDS
100%
📊
BULLDOGS
0%
SUNBIRDS --
BULLDOGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
124.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
FRESNO STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Fresno State)
SunbirdsFPU (-3.5) 0 BulldogsFRES (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Sunbirds Cover

15.9%

Bulldogs Cover

84.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around FRES -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FRES)

FPU By 1-7 points

10.7%

FPU By 8-14 points

3.3%

FRES By 1-7 points

23.0%

FRES By 8-14 points

27.2%

AI Model Projected Score
57
FRESNO PACIFIC
67
FRESNO STATE
Simulated Score
60
FRESNO PACIFIC
82
FRESNO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bulldogs Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bulldogs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bulldogs (+29.5) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim Bulldogs (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -22.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u158.5 Win
Proj Total: 124.0
D
Sim u158.5 Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 3, 2025 FPU @ FRES 51 - 88
Nov 6, 2023 FPU @ FRES 66 - 77
Nov 7, 2022 FPU @ FRES 56 - 69
Nov 9, 2021 FPU @ FRES 54 - 74
Dec 19, 2020 FPU @ FRES 65 - 78
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +123.3% more
Fresno State: 3.3 vs Fresno Pacific: 1.5
Steals (L5) +28.3% more
Fresno State: 7.2 vs Fresno Pacific: 5.6
Rebounding (L5) +13.3% more
Fresno State: 33.6 vs Fresno Pacific: 29.6
Free Throw % (L5) +3.8%
Fresno State: 67.7% vs Fresno Pacific: 64.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
FPU Score 57.0 51
FRES Score 67.0 88
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 30.8 / 42.5 28.0 / 17.0
Assists 8.8 / 11.1 20.0 / 4.0
Blocks 3.3 / 1.5 2.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 40.4 / 42.1 59.0 / 27.0
Free Throw % 67.7 / 64.0 61.0 / 72.0
Rebounding 33.6 / 29.6 47.0 / 26.0
Steals 7.2 / 5.6 6.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 11.2 / 18.7 15.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FPU
--
FRES Advantage
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-: +2.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FPU
--
FRES Advantage
21-10-0 (67.7%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-: +2.5
⚖️ Over/Under
FPU
--
FRES
13-18-0
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1% Total +/-: -4.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FRES
FPU
FRES
FPU
ML
59% 19-13
100% 1-0
74% 23-8
100% 1-0
ATS
75% 24-8
100% 1-0
74% 23-8
100% 1-0
TTL
56% 18-14
100% 1-0
100% 31-0
100% 1-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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