PENN STATE-YORK
NITTANY LIONSPSUY
0-0 | Road
53
UMBC
RETRIEVERSUMBC
1-0 | Home
74
AI Model Win Probability
NITTANY LIONS
100%
RETRIEVERS
0%
NITTANY LIONS
--
RETRIEVERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
161.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-55.0
UMBC
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +55.0 points (UMBC)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UMBC -55.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UMBC)
PSUY By 1-7 points
0.0%
PSUY By 8-14 points
0.0%
UMBC By 1-7 points
0.0%
UMBC By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Penn State-York
53
PENN STATE-YORK
UMBC
108
UMBC
Simulated Score
Penn State-York
52
PENN STATE-YORK
UMBC
98
UMBC
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Retrievers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Retrievers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Retrievers (+12.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -55.0
D
Sim
Retrievers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -46.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o145.5
Loss
Proj Total: 161.0
D
Sim
u145.5
Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 4, 2025
PSUY @ UMBC
53 - 74
Nov 4, 2024
PSUY @ UMBC
66 - 95
Nov 14, 2023
PSUY @ UMBC
65 - 84
Nov 10, 2022
PSUY @ UMBC
65 - 92
Nov 15, 2021
PSUY @ UMBC
47 - 85
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+78.5% more
UMBC: 12.2
vs
Penn State-York: 6.9
Steals (L5)
+36.1% more
UMBC: 5.4
vs
Penn State-York: 4.0
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+13.7%
UMBC: 43.6%
vs
Penn State-York: 29.8%
Field Goal % (L5)
+11.1%
UMBC: 45.4%
vs
Penn State-York: 34.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PSUY Score
53.0
53
UMBC Score
108.0
74
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
43.6 / 29.8
39.0 / 8.0
Assists
12.2 / 6.9
14.0 / 5.0
Blocks
1.2 / 2.7
3.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
45.4 / 34.3
43.0 / 35.0
Free Throw %
65.7 / 80.8
69.0 / 59.0
Rebounding
29.3 / 35.8
41.0 / 37.0
Steals
5.4 / 4.0
6.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
8.5 / 13.2
11.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PSUY
--
UMBC
Advantage
24-9-0
(72.7%)
Margin: 8.8
ATS +/-: +6.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PSUY
--
UMBC
Advantage
19-12-0
(61.3%)
Margin: 8.8
ATS +/-: +6.0
⚖️ Over/Under
PSUY
--
UMBC
14-17-0
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8%
Total +/-: -0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UMBC
PSUY
UMBC
PSUY
ML
58%
18-13
100%
1-0
55%
17-14
100%
1-0
ATS
68%
21-10
100%
1-0
55%
17-14
100%
1-0
TTL
39%
12-19
0%
0-1
100%
31-0
100%
1-0
