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MISSOURI SOUTHERN STATE

LIONSMOSSTC

0-0  |  Road

70
FINAL
Tue, Nov 4 • 8:00 PM ET
Great Southern Bank Arena
View Odds Details →

MISSOURI STATE

BEARSMOST

1-0  |  Home

88
AI Model Win Probability
LIONS
100%
📊
BEARS
0%
LIONS --
BEARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
149.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-23.0
MISSOURI STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +23.0 points (Missouri State)
LionsMOSSTC (-3.5) 0 BearsMOST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lions Cover

1.1%

Bears Cover

98.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MOST -23.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MOST)

MOSSTC By 1-7 points

0.8%

MOSSTC By 8-14 points

0.1%

MOST By 1-7 points

4.8%

MOST By 8-14 points

13.7%

AI Model Projected Score
63
MISSOURI SOUTHERN STATE
86
MISSOURI STATE
Simulated Score
67
MISSOURI SOUTHERN STATE
82
MISSOURI STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bears Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bears Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bears (+12.5) Win
Proj Spread: -23.0
D
Sim Bears (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o145.5 Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Sim u145.5 Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 4, 2025 MOSSTC @ MOST 70 - 88
Nov 11, 2024 MOSSTC @ MOST 61 - 90
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +25.7% more
Missouri State: 11.3 vs Missouri Southern State: 9.0
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +22.3%
Missouri State: 34.3% vs Missouri Southern State: 12.0%
Steals (L5) +8.0% more
Missouri State: 6.5 vs Missouri Southern State: 6.0
Field Goal % (L5) +6.4%
Missouri State: 40.4% vs Missouri Southern State: 34.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MOSSTC Score 63.0 70
MOST Score 86.0 88
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.3 / 12.0 16.0 / 26.0
Assists 11.3 / 9.0 14.0 / 17.0
Blocks 3.5 / 5.0 6.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 40.4 / 34.0 42.0 / 40.0
Free Throw % 70.0 / 80.0 81.0 / 50.0
Rebounding 31.9 / 38.0 53.0 / 42.0
Steals 6.5 / 6.0 8.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 13.1 / 18.0 8.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MOSSTC
--
MOST Advantage
16-18-0 (47.1%)
Margin: 1.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MOSSTC
--
MOST Advantage
18-13-0 (58.1%)
Margin: 1.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
MOSSTC
--
MOST
19-12-0
O: 61.3% / U: 38.7% Total +/-: +3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MOST
MOSSTC
MOST
MOSSTC
ML
65% 22-12
100% 1-0
62% 21-13
100% 1-0
ATS
68% 23-11
100% 1-0
62% 21-13
100% 1-0
TTL
44% 15-19
100% 1-0
100% 34-0
100% 1-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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