ARKANSAS BAPTIST
BUFFALOESARBA
0-0 | Road
63
LITTLE ROCK
TROJANSLR
1-0 | Home
92
AI Model Win Probability
BUFFALOES
100%
TROJANS
0%
BUFFALOES
--
TROJANS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
128.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-32.0
LITTLE ROCK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +32.0 points (Little Rock)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around LR -32.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LR)
ARBA By 1-7 points
0.1%
ARBA By 8-14 points
0.0%
LR By 1-7 points
0.6%
LR By 8-14 points
3.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Arkansas Baptist
48
ARKANSAS BAPTIST
Little Rock
80
LITTLE ROCK
Simulated Score
Arkansas Baptist
53
ARKANSAS BAPTIST
Little Rock
90
LITTLE ROCK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Trojans
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Trojans
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Trojans (+12.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -32.0
D
Sim
Trojans (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -37.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u145.5
Loss
Proj Total: 128.0
D
Sim
u145.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 4, 2025
ARBA @ LR
63 - 92
Nov 4, 2024
ARBA @ LR
64 - 84
Nov 10, 2022
ARBA @ LR
60 - 71
Nov 14, 2021
ARBA @ LR
60 - 91
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+121.1% more
Little Rock: 5.5
vs
Arkansas Baptist: 2.5
Steals (L5)
+32.2% more
Little Rock: 9.4
vs
Arkansas Baptist: 7.1
Assists (L5)
+24.8% more
Little Rock: 12.0
vs
Arkansas Baptist: 9.7
Rebounding (L5)
+13.7% more
Little Rock: 32.1
vs
Arkansas Baptist: 28.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ARBA Score
48.0
63
LR Score
80.0
92
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.6 / 26.8
47.0 / 32.0
Assists
12.0 / 9.7
23.0 / 8.0
Blocks
5.5 / 2.5
5.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
42.5 / 35.2
54.0 / 41.0
Free Throw %
72.0 / 70.2
50.0 / 82.0
Rebounding
32.1 / 28.2
40.0 / 24.0
Steals
9.4 / 7.1
14.0 / 11.0
Turnovers
14.6 / 16.9
15.0 / 20.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARBA
--
LR
Advantage
12-20-0
(37.5%)
Margin: -3.6
ATS +/-: -2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARBA
--
LR
Advantage
12-18-0
(40.0%)
Margin: -3.6
ATS +/-: -2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
ARBA
--
LR
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LR
ARBA
LR
ARBA
ML
52%
16-15
67%
2-1
68%
17-8
100%
3-0
ATS
45%
14-17
100%
3-0
68%
17-8
100%
3-0
TTL
58%
18-13
67%
2-1
100%
25-0
100%
3-0
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