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ADAMS STATE

GRIZZLIESADST

0-0  |  Road

72
FINAL
Tue, Nov 4 • 9:00 PM ET
Pan American Center
View Odds Details →

NEW MEXICO STATE

AGGIESNMSU

1-0  |  Home

83
AI Model Win Probability
GRIZZLIES
100%
📊
AGGIES
0%
GRIZZLIES --
AGGIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
144.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-40.0
NEW MEXICO STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +40.0 points (New Mexico State)
GrizzliesADST (-3.5) 0 AggiesNMSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Grizzlies Cover

0.0%

Aggies Cover

100.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around NMSU -40.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NMSU)

ADST By 1-7 points

0.0%

ADST By 8-14 points

0.0%

NMSU By 1-7 points

0.1%

NMSU By 8-14 points

0.5%

AI Model Projected Score
52
ADAMS STATE
92
NEW MEXICO STATE
Simulated Score
63
ADAMS STATE
88
NEW MEXICO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Aggies Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Aggies Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Aggies (+12.5) Win
Proj Spread: -40.0
D
Sim Aggies (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -25.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u145.5 Loss
Proj Total: 144.0
D
Sim u145.5 Win
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 4, 2025 ADST @ NMSU 72 - 83
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +43.9% more
New Mexico State: 2.7 vs Adams State: 1.9
Rebounding (L5) +20.8% more
New Mexico State: 37.6 vs Adams State: 31.2
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +5.7%
New Mexico State: 31.9% vs Adams State: 26.2%
Turnovers (L5) +53.0% more
Adams State: 16.7 vs New Mexico State: 7.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ADST Score 52.0 72
NMSU Score 92.0 83
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.9 / 26.2 33.0 / 20.0
Assists 10.7 / 11.4 14.0 / 9.0
Blocks 2.7 / 1.9 5.0 / 14.0
Field Goal % 40.4 / 40.3 41.0 / 34.0
Free Throw % 66.8 / 69.6 61.0 / 83.0
Rebounding 37.6 / 31.2 43.0 / 39.0
Steals 5.9 / 7.4 15.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 7.8 / 16.7 15.0 / 22.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ADST
--
NMSU Advantage
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.1 ATS +/-: -1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ADST
--
NMSU Advantage
14-15-0 (48.3%)
Margin: 3.1 ATS +/-: -1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
ADST
--
NMSU
17-11-1
O: 60.7% / U: 39.3% Total +/-: +3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NMSU
ADST
NMSU
ADST
ML
61% 19-12
100% 1-0
67% 20-10
100% 1-0
ATS
65% 20-11
100% 1-0
67% 20-10
100% 1-0
TTL
45% 14-17
0% 0-1
100% 30-0
100% 1-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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