Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Buffaloes @ Blue Raiders MILLI @ MTSU

MILLIGAN

BUFFALOESMILLI

0-0  |  Road

51
FINAL
Wed, Nov 5 • 11:30 AM ET
Murphy Center
View Odds Details →

MIDDLE TENNESSEE

BLUE RAIDERSMTSU

1-0  |  Home

100
AI Model Win Probability
BUFFALOES
100%
📊
BLUE RAIDERS
0%
BUFFALOES --
BLUE RAIDERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
191.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Middle Tennessee)
BuffaloesMILLI (-3.5) 0 Blue RaidersMTSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Buffaloes Cover

24.2%

Blue Raiders Cover

75.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MTSU -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MTSU)

MILLI By 1-7 points

15.3%

MILLI By 8-14 points

5.8%

MTSU By 1-7 points

26.2%

MTSU By 8-14 points

25.3%

AI Model Projected Score
92
MILLIGAN
99
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Simulated Score
52
MILLIGAN
88
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Blue Raiders Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Blue Raiders Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Blue Raiders (+6.5) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim Blue Raiders (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -36.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o156.5 Loss
Proj Total: 191.0
D
Sim u156.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 5, 2025 MILLI @ MTSU 51 - 100
Nov 18, 2023 MILLI @ MTSU 62 - 88
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +131.2% more
Middle Tennessee: 3.6 vs Milligan: 1.5
Rebounding (L5) +18.2% more
Middle Tennessee: 40.4 vs Milligan: 34.1
Steals (L5) +11.2% more
Middle Tennessee: 6.3 vs Milligan: 5.6
Field Goal % (L5) +7.3%
Middle Tennessee: 45.9% vs Milligan: 38.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MILLI Score 92.0 51
MTSU Score 99.0 100
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 30.8 / 33.0 41.0 / 18.0
Assists 13.0 / 12.5 22.0 / 7.0
Blocks 3.6 / 1.5 8.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 45.9 / 38.6 51.0 / 27.0
Free Throw % 62.3 / 69.1 60.0 / 59.0
Rebounding 40.4 / 34.1 46.0 / 40.0
Steals 6.3 / 5.6 9.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 13.2 / 13.9 7.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MILLI
--
MTSU Advantage
17-15-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 2.7 ATS +/-: +0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MILLI
--
MTSU Advantage
13-16-0 (44.8%)
Margin: 2.7 ATS +/-: +0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
MILLI
--
MTSU
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7% Total +/-: +1.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MTSU
MILLI
MTSU
MILLI
ML
56% 18-14
100% 1-0
69% 22-10
100% 1-0
ATS
75% 24-8
100% 1-0
69% 22-10
100% 1-0
TTL
53% 17-15
0% 0-1
100% 32-0
100% 1-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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