TEXAS A&M-SAN ANTONIO
JAGUARSTASA
0-0 | Road
55
TEXAS STATE
BOBCATSTXST
1-1 | Home
114
AI Model Win Probability
JAGUARS
50%
BOBCATS
50%
JAGUARS
--
BOBCATS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
77.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
50%
Under 0
50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
TEXAS STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Texas State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around TXST -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TXST)
TASA By 1-7 points
24.3%
TASA By 8-14 points
13.7%
TXST By 1-7 points
26.2%
TXST By 8-14 points
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Texas A&M-San Antonio
38
TEXAS A&M-SAN ANTONIO
Texas State
39
TEXAS STATE
Simulated Score
Texas A&M-San Antonio
65
TEXAS A&M-SAN ANTONIO
Texas State
78
TEXAS STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
50% Win Prob
D
Sim
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim
Bobcats (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
77
Proj Total: 77.0
D
Sim
o144.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 5, 2025
TASA @ TXST
55 - 114
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+138.8% more
Texas State: 4.3
vs
Texas A&M-San Antonio: 1.8
Steals (L5)
+29.4% more
Texas State: 7.0
vs
Texas A&M-San Antonio: 5.4
Free Throw % (L5)
+15.8%
Texas State: 61.9%
vs
Texas A&M-San Antonio: 46.1%
Field Goal % (L5)
+6.5%
Texas State: 42.9%
vs
Texas A&M-San Antonio: 36.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TASA Score
38.0
55
TXST Score
39.0
114
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
30.1 / 38.0
53.0 / 20.0
Assists
13.2 / 15.3
18.0 / 8.0
Blocks
4.3 / 1.8
5.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
42.9 / 36.4
63.0 / 30.0
Free Throw %
61.9 / 46.1
80.0 / 62.0
Rebounding
34.8 / 33.2
43.0 / 26.0
Steals
7.0 / 5.4
12.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
13.7 / 18.4
13.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TASA
--
TXST
Advantage
19-13-0
(59.4%)
Margin: 2.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TASA
--
TXST
Advantage
14-15-1
(48.3%)
Margin: 2.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
TASA
--
TXST
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7%
Total +/-: +2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TXST
TASA
TXST
TASA
ML
42%
13-18
--
0-0
83%
25-5
--
0-0
ATS
48%
15-16
--
0-0
84%
26-5
100%
2-0
TTL
65%
20-11
--
0-0
100%
31-0
100%
2-0
Contextual Game News
