Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Timberwolves @ Broncos NAR @ WMU

NORTHWOOD (MI)

TIMBERWOLVESNAR

0-0  |  Road

85
FINAL
Thu, Nov 6 • 7:00 PM ET
University Arena (MI)
View Odds Details →

WESTERN MICHIGAN

BRONCOSWMU

1-1  |  Home

81
AI Model Win Probability
TIMBERWOLVES
0%
📊
BRONCOS
100%
TIMBERWOLVES --
BRONCOS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
131.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+11.0
WESTERN MICHIGAN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
TimberwolvesNAR (-3.5) 0 BroncosWMU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Timberwolves Cover

13.6%

Broncos Cover

86.4%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around WMU +11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WMU)

NAR By 1-7 points

21.6%

NAR By 8-14 points

27.4%

WMU By 1-7 points

9.3%

WMU By 8-14 points

2.7%

AI Model Projected Score
71
NORTHWOOD (MI)
60
WESTERN MICHIGAN
Simulated Score
62
NORTHWOOD (MI)
85
WESTERN MICHIGAN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Timberwolves Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Broncos Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Broncos (+15.5) Win
Proj Spread: +11.0
D
Sim Broncos (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -23.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u161.5 Loss
Proj Total: 131.0
D
Sim u161.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 6, 2025 NAR @ WMU 85 - 81
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +34.3% more
Northwood (MI): 2.3 vs Western Michigan: 1.5
Turnovers (L5) +26.3% more
Northwood (MI): 16.0 vs Western Michigan: 11.8
Steals (L5) +9.5% more
Northwood (MI): 6.3 vs Western Michigan: 5.7
Assists (L5) +23.2% more
Western Michigan: 12.7 vs Northwood (MI): 10.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NAR Score 71.0 85
WMU Score 60.0 81
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 29.0 / 26.7 38.0 / 30.0
Assists 12.7 / 10.3 11.0 / 21.0
Blocks 1.5 / 2.3 5.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 43.5 / 39.3 47.0 / 44.0
Free Throw % 68.0 / 62.3 67.0 / 68.0
Rebounding 35.4 / 34.0 42.0 / 35.0
Steals 5.7 / 6.3 9.0 / 13.0
Turnovers 11.8 / 16.0 22.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NAR
--
WMU Advantage
10-21-0 (32.3%)
Margin: -4.7 ATS +/-: +1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NAR
--
WMU Advantage
16-13-0 (55.2%)
Margin: -4.7 ATS +/-: +1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
NAR
--
WMU
18-11-0
O: 62.1% / U: 37.9% Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WMU
NAR
WMU
NAR
ML
60% 18-12
100% 1-0
70% 21-9
0% 0-1
ATS
67% 20-10
100% 1-0
70% 21-9
0% 0-1
TTL
57% 17-13
0% 0-1
100% 30-0
100% 1-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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