Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bulldogs @ Golden Eagles TOUGA @ USM

TOUGALOO

BULLDOGSTOUGA

0-0  |  Road

57
FINAL
Thu, Nov 6 • 8:00 PM ET
Reed Green Coliseum
View Odds Details →

SOUTHERN MISS

GOLDEN EAGLESUSM

1-1  |  Home

93
AI Model Win Probability
BULLDOGS
0%
📊
GOLDEN EAGLES
100%
BULLDOGS --
GOLDEN EAGLES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
174.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-24.0
TOUGALOO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +24.0 points (Tougaloo)
BulldogsTOUGA (-3.5) 0 Golden EaglesUSM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bulldogs Cover

99.2%

Golden Eagles Cover

0.8%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around TOUGA -24.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOUGA)

TOUGA By 1-7 points

4.0%

TOUGA By 8-14 points

12.2%

USM By 1-7 points

0.6%

USM By 8-14 points

0.1%

AI Model Projected Score
99
TOUGALOO
75
SOUTHERN MISS
Simulated Score
55
TOUGALOO
88
SOUTHERN MISS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bulldogs Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Golden Eagles Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bulldogs (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -24.0
D
Sim Golden Eagles (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -33.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 174.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 6, 2025 TOUGA @ USM 57 - 93
Dec 21, 2019 TOUGA @ USM 77 - 96
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +2.4%
Tougaloo: 31.7% vs Southern Miss: 29.2%
Blocks (L5) +331.0% more
Southern Miss: 3.6 vs Tougaloo: 0.3
Assists (L5) +41.4% more
Southern Miss: 14.1 vs Tougaloo: 10.0
Free Throw % (L5) +8.6%
Southern Miss: 81.3% vs Tougaloo: 72.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TOUGA Score 99.0 57
USM Score 75.0 93
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 29.2 / 31.7 38.0 / 22.0
Assists 14.1 / 10.0 17.0 / 10.0
Blocks 3.6 / 0.3 5.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 44.5 / 41.3 45.0 / 32.0
Free Throw % 81.3 / 72.7 69.0 / 68.0
Rebounding 33.2 / 36.0 52.0 / 31.0
Steals 6.5 / 7.0 11.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 12.9 / 12.7 14.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOUGA
--
USM Advantage
19-16-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOUGA
--
USM Advantage
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
TOUGA
--
USM
20-13-0
O: 60.6% / U: 39.4% Total +/-: +3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USM
TOUGA
USM
TOUGA
ML
53% 18-16
50% 1-1
73% 24-9
100% 2-0
ATS
59% 20-14
50% 1-1
74% 25-9
100% 2-0
TTL
68% 23-11
100% 2-0
100% 34-0
100% 2-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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