DAKOTA STATE
TROJANSDAKO
0-0 | Road
62
SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
JACKRABBITSSDST
2-0 | Home
68
AI Model Win Probability
TROJANS
0%
JACKRABBITS
100%
TROJANS
--
JACKRABBITS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
177.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+9.0
SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SDST +9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SDST)
DAKO By 1-7 points
24.3%
DAKO By 8-14 points
26.8%
SDST By 1-7 points
12.2%
SDST By 8-14 points
4.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Dakota State
93
DAKOTA STATE
South Dakota State
84
SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
Simulated Score
Dakota State
58
DAKOTA STATE
South Dakota State
85
SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Trojans
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Jackrabbits
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Jackrabbits (+15.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +9.0
D
Sim
Jackrabbits (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -27.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o161.5
Loss
Proj Total: 177.0
D
Sim
u161.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 6, 2025
DAKO @ SDST
62 - 68
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+60.4% more
Dakota State: 9.0
vs
South Dakota State: 3.6
Turnovers (L5)
+27.1% more
Dakota State: 16.0
vs
South Dakota State: 11.7
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+3.0%
Dakota State: 35.0%
vs
South Dakota State: 32.0%
Blocks (L5)
+269.0% more
South Dakota State: 2.7
vs
Dakota State: 0.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DAKO Score
93.0
62
SDST Score
84.0
68
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.0 / 35.0
39.0 / 33.0
Assists
14.4 / 9.0
9.0 / 15.0
Blocks
2.7 / 0.0
2.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
40.8 / 42.0
49.0 / 43.0
Free Throw %
71.2 / 44.0
56.0 / 73.0
Rebounding
42.1 / 35.0
34.0 / 28.0
Steals
3.6 / 9.0
11.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
11.7 / 16.0
15.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DAKO
Advantage
27-8-0
(77.1%)
Margin: 10.1
ATS +/-: +4.5
SDST
14-18-0
(43.8%)
Margin: 2.6
ATS +/-: -1.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DAKO
Advantage
19-14-0
(57.6%)
Margin: 10.1
ATS +/-: +4.5
SDST
12-16-1
(42.9%)
Margin: 2.6
ATS +/-: -1.8
⚖️ Over/Under
DAKO
18-13-2
O: 58.1% / U: 41.9%
Total +/-: +2.9
SDST
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SDST
DAKO
SDST
DAKO
ML
75%
24-8
0%
0-1
53%
17-15
100%
1-0
ATS
78%
25-7
100%
1-0
53%
17-15
100%
1-0
TTL
53%
17-15
0%
0-1
100%
32-0
100%
1-0
