MANSFIELD
MOUNTAINEERSMNFD
0-0 | Road
54
BALL STATE
CARDINALSBALL
2-0 | Home
84
AI Model Win Probability
MOUNTAINEERS
0%
CARDINALS
100%
MOUNTAINEERS
--
CARDINALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
186.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+14.0
BALL STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around BALL +14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BALL)
MNFD By 1-7 points
16.9%
MNFD By 8-14 points
26.2%
BALL By 1-7 points
5.8%
BALL By 8-14 points
1.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Mansfield
100
MANSFIELD
Ball State
86
BALL STATE
Simulated Score
Mansfield
45
MANSFIELD
Ball State
88
BALL STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Mountaineers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cardinals
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Cardinals (+27.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +14.0
D
Sim
Cardinals (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -43.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o153.5
Loss
Proj Total: 186.0
D
Sim
u153.5
Win
Proj Total: 133.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 7, 2025
MNFD @ BALL
54 - 84
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+33.4% more
Mansfield: 17.0
vs
Ball State: 11.3
Assists (L5)
+23.2% more
Mansfield: 16.0
vs
Ball State: 12.3
Blocks (L5)
+60.0% more
Ball State: 3.2
vs
Mansfield: 2.0
Free Throw % (L5)
+34.2%
Ball State: 74.2%
vs
Mansfield: 40.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MNFD Score
100.0
54
BALL Score
86.0
84
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.8 / 35.0
26.0 / 11.0
Assists
12.3 / 16.0
14.0 / 8.0
Blocks
3.2 / 2.0
3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
45.0 / 40.0
51.0 / 38.0
Free Throw %
74.2 / 40.0
52.0 / 55.0
Rebounding
35.8 / 29.0
42.0 / 33.0
Steals
4.7 / 4.0
11.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
11.3 / 17.0
13.0 / 21.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MNFD
--
BALL
Advantage
12-19-0
(38.7%)
Margin: -2.0
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MNFD
--
BALL
Advantage
14-14-1
(50.0%)
Margin: -2.0
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
MNFD
--
BALL
9-19-1
O: 32.1% / U: 67.9%
Total +/-: -6.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BALL
MNFD
BALL
MNFD
ML
43%
13-17
0%
0-1
62%
18-11
100%
1-0
ATS
67%
20-10
100%
1-0
62%
18-11
100%
1-0
TTL
50%
15-15
0%
0-1
100%
29-0
100%
1-0
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