ALABAMA
CRIMSON TIDEALA
2-0 | Road
103
ST. JOHN'S
RED STORMSJU
1-1 | Home
96
AI Model Win Probability
CRIMSON TIDE
100%
RED STORM
0%
CRIMSON TIDE
--
RED STORM
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
179.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-21.0
ST. JOHN'S
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +21.0 points (St. John's)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SJU -21.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SJU)
ALA By 1-7 points
1.4%
ALA By 8-14 points
0.2%
SJU By 1-7 points
6.8%
SJU By 8-14 points
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Alabama
79
ALABAMA
St. John's
100
ST. JOHN'S
Simulated Score
Alabama
82
ALABAMA
St. John's
78
ST. JOHN'S
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Red Storm
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Crimson Tide
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Red Storm (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -21.0
D
Sim
Crimson Tide (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 179.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 160.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 8, 2025
ALA @ SJU
103 - 96
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5)
+15.7% more
St. John's: 45.3
vs
Alabama: 39.2
Blocks (L5)
+32.4% more
Alabama: 5.4
vs
St. John's: 3.6
Turnovers (L5)
+19.2% more
Alabama: 12.7
vs
St. John's: 10.2
Assists (L5)
+11.4% more
Alabama: 19.7
vs
St. John's: 17.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ALA Score
79.0
103
SJU Score
100.0
96
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.5 / 33.4
35.0 / 31.0
Assists
17.5 / 19.7
18.0 / 13.0
Blocks
3.6 / 5.4
4.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
45.8 / 48.5
49.0 / 48.0
Free Throw %
68.8 / 77.3
70.0 / 64.0
Rebounding
45.3 / 39.2
42.0 / 43.0
Steals
7.9 / 7.5
4.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
10.2 / 12.7
12.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ALA
25-10-0
(71.4%)
Margin: 8.5
ATS +/-: +1.1
SJU
Advantage
30-7-0
(81.1%)
Margin: 11.3
ATS +/-: +1.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ALA
15-19-0
(44.1%)
Margin: 8.5
ATS +/-: +1.1
SJU
Advantage
22-13-1
(62.9%)
Margin: 11.3
ATS +/-: +1.8
⚖️ Over/Under
ALA
17-16-1
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5%
Total +/-: +0.2
SJU
13-23-0
O: 36.1% / U: 63.9%
Total +/-: -3.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SJU
ALA
SJU
ALA
ML
62%
18-11
63%
22-13
62%
18-11
58%
19-14
ATS
66%
19-10
60%
21-14
62%
18-11
58%
19-14
TTL
59%
17-12
63%
22-13
100%
29-0
100%
33-0
Contextual Game News
Aden Holloway Reinstated to Alabama Basketball Roster, Suspended…
Alabama's Keelon Russell Silences Doubters with Explosive Perfor…
Keyshawn Hall Wins Temporary Restraining Order, Cleared to Suit …
Calipari Drops Stunner: Nine Arkansas Players Outearn Assistant …
Texas A&M vs. LSU: Aggies' Playoff Hopes Hang in the Balance as …