RUST
BEARCATSRUST
0-0 | Road
55
UL MONROE
WARHAWKSULM
1-2 | Home
88
AI Model Win Probability
BEARCATS
0%
WARHAWKS
100%
BEARCATS
--
WARHAWKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
139.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+29.0
UL MONROE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ULM +29.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ULM)
RUST By 1-7 points
1.4%
RUST By 8-14 points
5.8%
ULM By 1-7 points
0.1%
ULM By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Rust
84
RUST
UL Monroe
55
UL MONROE
Simulated Score
Rust
56
RUST
UL Monroe
92
UL MONROE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Bearcats
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Warhawks
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Warhawks (+33.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +29.0
D
Sim
Warhawks (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -36.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u148.5
Win
Proj Total: 139.0
D
Sim
u148.5
Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 10, 2025
RUST @ ULM
55 - 88
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+25.3% more
Rust: 8.1
vs
UL Monroe: 6.1
Turnovers (L5)
+23.3% more
Rust: 16.3
vs
UL Monroe: 12.5
Blocks (L5)
+37.2% more
UL Monroe: 1.8
vs
Rust: 1.3
Rebounding (L5)
+9.8% more
UL Monroe: 30.5
vs
Rust: 27.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
RUST Score
84.0
55
ULM Score
55.0
88
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.2 / 30.7
30.0 / 11.0
Assists
12.3 / 12.0
19.0 / 9.0
Blocks
1.8 / 1.3
4.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
42.6 / 35.8
52.0 / 34.0
Free Throw %
70.6 / 66.9
83.0 / 88.0
Rebounding
30.5 / 27.8
42.0 / 32.0
Steals
6.1 / 8.1
11.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
12.5 / 16.3
13.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
RUST
--
ULM
Advantage
4-28-0
(12.5%)
Margin: -11.5
ATS +/-: -0.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
RUST
--
ULM
Advantage
18-12-0
(60.0%)
Margin: -11.5
ATS +/-: -0.9
⚖️ Over/Under
RUST
--
ULM
20-9-1
O: 69.0% / U: 31.0%
Total +/-: +5.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ULM
RUST
ULM
RUST
ML
50%
16-16
0%
0-1
70%
21-9
100%
1-0
ATS
78%
25-7
100%
1-0
70%
21-9
100%
1-0
TTL
59%
19-13
100%
1-0
100%
30-0
100%
1-0
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