Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Mountaineers @ Buckeyes APP @ OSU

APP STATE

MOUNTAINEERSAPP

2-2  |  Road

53
FINAL
Tue, Nov 11 • 6:30 PM ET
Value City Arena
View Odds Details →

OHIO STATE

BUCKEYESOSU

3-0  |  Home

75
AI Model Win Probability
MOUNTAINEERS
0%
📊
BUCKEYES
100%
MOUNTAINEERS --
BUCKEYES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
105.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
APP STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (App State)
MountaineersAPP (-3.5) 0 BuckeyesOSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mountaineers Cover

54.0%

Buckeyes Cover

46.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around APP -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (APP)

APP By 1-7 points

26.2%

APP By 8-14 points

16.9%

OSU By 1-7 points

24.3%

OSU By 8-14 points

13.7%

AI Model Projected Score
53
APP STATE
52
OHIO STATE
Simulated Score
62
APP STATE
74
OHIO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Mountaineers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Buckeyes Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Mountaineers (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Buckeyes (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 105.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 136.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 11, 2025 APP @ OSU 53 - 75
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +73.8% more
App State: 5.1 vs Ohio State: 1.3
Rebounding (L5) +14.8% more
App State: 39.5 vs Ohio State: 33.6
Steals (L5) +14.8% more
App State: 7.1 vs Ohio State: 6.0
Turnovers (L5) +58.7% more
Ohio State: 14.7 vs App State: 9.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
APP Score 53.0 53
OSU Score 52.0 75
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 41.0 / 30.0 26.0 / 32.0
Assists 17.3 / 13.2 15.0 / 10.0
Blocks 1.3 / 5.1 1.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 55.6 / 42.6 41.0 / 36.0
Free Throw % 76.8 / 64.0 75.0 / 63.0
Rebounding 33.6 / 39.5 42.0 / 31.0
Steals 6.0 / 7.1 3.0 / 0.0
Turnovers 14.7 / 9.2 4.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
APP
19-13-0 (59.4%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: +0.9
OSU Advantage
21-13-0 (61.8%)
Margin: 6.7 ATS +/-: +1.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
APP Advantage
16-13-1 (55.2%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: +0.9
OSU
17-16-1 (51.5%)
Margin: 6.7 ATS +/-: +1.8
⚖️ Over/Under
APP
12-18-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -1.2
OSU
16-18-0
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9% Total +/-: -1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OSU
APP
OSU
APP
ML
53% 18-16
62% 20-12
73% 24-9
59% 19-13
ATS
59% 20-14
59% 19-13
73% 24-9
59% 19-13
TTL
56% 19-15
69% 22-10
100% 33-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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