Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Cowboys @ Aggies NMHU @ NMSU

NEW MEXICO HIGHLANDS

COWBOYSNMHU

0-0  |  Road

58
FINAL
Tue, Nov 11 • 9:30 PM ET
Pan American Center
View Odds Details →

NEW MEXICO STATE

AGGIESNMSU

2-0  |  Home

74
AI Model Win Probability
COWBOYS
100%
📊
AGGIES
0%
COWBOYS --
AGGIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
154.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-16.0
NEW MEXICO STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +16.0 points (New Mexico State)
CowboysNMHU (-3.5) 0 AggiesNMSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cowboys Cover

5.5%

Aggies Cover

94.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around NMSU -16.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NMSU)

NMHU By 1-7 points

4.0%

NMHU By 8-14 points

0.8%

NMSU By 1-7 points

13.7%

NMSU By 8-14 points

24.3%

AI Model Projected Score
69
NEW MEXICO HIGHLANDS
85
NEW MEXICO STATE
Simulated Score
62
NEW MEXICO HIGHLANDS
88
NEW MEXICO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Aggies Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Aggies Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Aggies (-8.5) Win
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Sim Aggies (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -26.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u161.5 Win
Proj Total: 154.0
D
Sim u161.5 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 11, 2025 NMHU @ NMSU 58 - 74
Nov 4, 2024 NMHU @ NMSU 57 - 93
Nov 7, 2022 NMHU @ NMSU 52 - 101
Nov 24, 2021 NMHU @ NMSU 67 - 94
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +39.8% more
New Mexico State: 3.5 vs New Mexico Highlands: 2.5
Rebounding (L5) +32.1% more
New Mexico State: 39.4 vs New Mexico Highlands: 29.8
Assists (L5) +14.3% more
New Mexico State: 11.8 vs New Mexico Highlands: 10.3
Field Goal % (L5) +7.6%
New Mexico State: 40.6% vs New Mexico Highlands: 33.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NMHU Score 69.0 58
NMSU Score 85.0 74
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.3 / 28.1 35.0 / 32.0
Assists 11.8 / 10.3 11.0 / 10.0
Blocks 3.5 / 2.5 3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 40.6 / 33.0 51.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 64.9 / 67.1 68.0 / 62.0
Rebounding 39.4 / 29.8 29.0 / 29.0
Steals 8.9 / 9.5 13.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 10.2 / 21.6 13.0 / 21.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NMHU
--
NMSU Advantage
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.1 ATS +/-: -1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NMHU
--
NMSU Advantage
14-15-0 (48.3%)
Margin: 3.1 ATS +/-: -1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
NMHU
--
NMSU
17-11-1
O: 60.7% / U: 39.3% Total +/-: +3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NMSU
NMHU
NMSU
NMHU
ML
61% 19-12
67% 2-1
67% 20-10
100% 3-0
ATS
65% 20-11
67% 2-1
67% 20-10
100% 3-0
TTL
45% 14-17
67% 2-1
100% 30-0
100% 3-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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