VIRGINIA-LYNCHBURG
DRAGONSUVAL
0-0 | Road
54
VMI
KEYDETSVMI
3-1 | Home
106
AI Model Win Probability
DRAGONS
100%
KEYDETS
0%
DRAGONS
--
KEYDETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
142.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-26.0
VMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +26.0 points (VMI)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around VMI -26.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (VMI)
UVAL By 1-7 points
0.4%
UVAL By 8-14 points
0.0%
VMI By 1-7 points
2.7%
VMI By 8-14 points
9.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Virginia-Lynchburg
58
VIRGINIA-LYNCHBURG
VMI
84
VMI
Simulated Score
Virginia-Lynchburg
58
VIRGINIA-LYNCHBURG
VMI
92
VMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Keydets
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Keydets
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Keydets (+7.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -26.0
D
Sim
Keydets (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -34.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u149.5
Loss
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Sim
u149.5
Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 12, 2025
UVAL @ VMI
54 - 106
Dec 3, 2024
UVAL @ VMI
51 - 113
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+103.4% more
VMI: 3.0
vs
Virginia-Lynchburg: 1.5
Assists (L5)
+84.6% more
VMI: 12.9
vs
Virginia-Lynchburg: 7.0
Steals (L5)
+35.8% more
VMI: 8.4
vs
Virginia-Lynchburg: 6.2
Rebounding (L5)
+28.6% more
VMI: 35.2
vs
Virginia-Lynchburg: 27.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UVAL Score
58.0
54
VMI Score
84.0
106
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.0 / 20.0
37.0 / 12.0
Assists
12.9 / 7.0
19.0 / 13.0
Blocks
3.0 / 1.5
11.0 / 0.0
Field Goal %
40.7 / 26.7
43.0 / 27.0
Free Throw %
73.4 / 64.4
80.0 / 64.0
Rebounding
35.2 / 27.4
62.0 / 46.0
Steals
8.4 / 6.2
11.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
12.0 / 14.7
7.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UVAL
--
VMI
Advantage
6-26-0
(18.8%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -5.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UVAL
--
VMI
Advantage
9-20-0
(31.0%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -5.4
⚖️ Over/Under
UVAL
--
VMI
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7%
Total +/-: -0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
VMI
UVAL
VMI
UVAL
ML
53%
17-15
78%
7-2
84%
27-5
100%
9-0
ATS
50%
16-16
78%
7-2
84%
27-5
100%
9-0
TTL
62%
20-12
44%
4-5
100%
32-0
100%
9-0
Contextual Game News
