Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Nittany Lions @ Zips PEN @ AKR

PENN STATE-SHENANGO

NITTANY LIONSPEN

0-0  |  Road

51
FINAL
Wed, Nov 12 • 7:00 PM ET
James A. Rhodes Arena
View Odds Details →

AKRON

ZIPSAKR

3-0  |  Home

109
AI Model Win Probability
NITTANY LIONS
100%
📊
ZIPS
0%
NITTANY LIONS --
ZIPS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
190.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-26.0
AKRON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +26.0 points (Akron)
Nittany LionsPEN (-3.5) 0 ZipsAKR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nittany Lions Cover

0.5%

Zips Cover

99.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around AKR -26.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (AKR)

PEN By 1-7 points

0.4%

PEN By 8-14 points

0.0%

AKR By 1-7 points

2.7%

AKR By 8-14 points

9.3%

AI Model Projected Score
82
PENN STATE-SHENANGO
108
AKRON
Simulated Score
42
PENN STATE-SHENANGO
95
AKRON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Zips Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Zips Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Zips (+7.5) Win
Proj Spread: -26.0
D
Sim Zips (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -53.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o149.5 Win
Proj Total: 190.0
D
Sim u149.5 Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 12, 2025 PEN @ AKR 51 - 109
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +104.0% more
Akron: 4.1 vs Penn State-Shenango: 2.0
Steals (L5) +92.7% more
Akron: 9.0 vs Penn State-Shenango: 4.7
Assists (L5) +65.8% more
Akron: 16.6 vs Penn State-Shenango: 10.0
Rebounding (L5) +32.1% more
Akron: 37.9 vs Penn State-Shenango: 28.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PEN Score 82.0 51
AKR Score 108.0 109
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.9 / 19.3 27.0 / 29.0
Assists 16.6 / 10.0 32.0 / 10.0
Blocks 4.1 / 2.0 8.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 46.2 / 32.3 50.0 / 27.0
Free Throw % 79.5 / 96.7 50.0 / 100.0
Rebounding 37.9 / 28.7 65.0 / 35.0
Steals 9.0 / 4.7 10.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 7.8 / 9.0 11.0 / 20.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PEN
--
AKR Advantage
29-6-0 (82.9%)
Margin: 13.9 ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PEN
--
AKR Advantage
17-16-0 (51.5%)
Margin: 13.9 ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
PEN
--
AKR
15-17-1
O: 46.9% / U: 53.1% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
AKR
PEN
AKR
PEN
ML
71% 24-10
100% 3-0
65% 22-12
100% 3-0
ATS
76% 26-8
100% 3-0
65% 22-12
100% 3-0
TTL
59% 20-14
100% 3-0
100% 34-0
100% 3-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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