CENTRAL MICHIGAN
CHIPPEWASCMU
1-2 | Road
64
SOUTH ALABAMA
JAGUARSUSA
4-0 | Home
66
AI Model Win Probability
CHIPPEWAS
0%
JAGUARS
100%
CHIPPEWAS
--
JAGUARS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
172.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-28.0
CENTRAL MICHIGAN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +28.0 points (Central Michigan)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around CMU -28.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CMU)
CMU By 1-7 points
1.7%
CMU By 8-14 points
6.8%
USA By 1-7 points
0.2%
USA By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Central Michigan
100
CENTRAL MICHIGAN
South Alabama
72
SOUTH ALABAMA
Simulated Score
Central Michigan
68
CENTRAL MICHIGAN
South Alabama
72
SOUTH ALABAMA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Chippewas
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Jaguars
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Chippewas (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -28.0
D
Sim
Jaguars (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 172.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 13, 2025
CMU @ USA
64 - 66
Nov 4, 2024
CMU @ USA
74 - 70
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+57.6% more
Central Michigan: 4.1
vs
South Alabama: 1.7
Turnovers (L5)
+29.2% more
Central Michigan: 13.1
vs
South Alabama: 9.3
Free Throw % (L5)
+15.6%
Central Michigan: 77.9%
vs
South Alabama: 62.3%
Steals (L5)
+55.7% more
South Alabama: 8.7
vs
Central Michigan: 5.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CMU Score
100.0
64
USA Score
72.0
66
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.2 / 30.8
25.0 / 32.0
Assists
12.5 / 11.1
8.0 / 17.0
Blocks
1.7 / 4.1
3.0 / 7.0
Field Goal %
49.7 / 44.0
42.0 / 34.0
Free Throw %
62.3 / 77.9
65.0 / 60.0
Rebounding
41.1 / 34.8
38.0 / 44.0
Steals
8.7 / 5.6
7.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
9.3 / 13.1
8.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CMU
10-21-0
(32.3%)
Margin: -3.5
ATS +/-: +1.4
USA
Advantage
21-12-0
(63.6%)
Margin: 4.3
ATS +/-: +1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CMU
15-13-1
(53.6%)
Margin: -3.5
ATS +/-: +1.4
USA
Advantage
17-14-0
(54.8%)
Margin: 4.3
ATS +/-: +1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
CMU
13-16-0
O: 44.8% / U: 55.2%
Total +/-: +0.4
USA
16-15-0
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USA
CMU
USA
CMU
ML
47%
15-17
57%
17-13
57%
17-13
70%
21-9
ATS
53%
17-15
67%
20-10
57%
17-13
70%
21-9
TTL
66%
21-11
67%
20-10
100%
30-0
100%
30-0
Contextual Game News
Duke Dominates ACC Preseason Poll, But Wide-Open Race Looms Behi…
Miami Hurricanes Hit Hard: Top Two Running Backs Out, Jordan Lyl…
Heat Fill Training Camp Roster with Rookie Signings, Keep Option…
Houston Cougars Set to Host Southern Jaguars in Week 2 Clash at …
Marcus Freeman's Relentless Fire: How a Deep-Seated Hatred of Lo…