Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Lions @ Bulldogs BRTN @ UNCA

BRYAN (TN)

LIONSBRTN

0-0  |  Road

54
FINAL
Thu, Nov 13 • 6:30 PM ET
Kimmel Arena
View Odds Details →

UNC ASHEVILLE

BULLDOGSUNCA

2-2  |  Home

92
AI Model Win Probability
LIONS
100%
📊
BULLDOGS
0%
LIONS --
BULLDOGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
159.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-47.0
UNC ASHEVILLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +47.0 points (UNC Asheville)
LionsBRTN (-3.5) 0 BulldogsUNCA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lions Cover

0.0%

Bulldogs Cover

100.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UNCA -47.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNCA)

BRTN By 1-7 points

0.0%

BRTN By 8-14 points

0.0%

UNCA By 1-7 points

0.0%

UNCA By 8-14 points

0.1%

AI Model Projected Score
56
BRYAN (TN)
103
UNC ASHEVILLE
Simulated Score
57
BRYAN (TN)
96
UNC ASHEVILLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bulldogs Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bulldogs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bulldogs (+6.5) Win
Proj Spread: -47.0
D
Sim Bulldogs (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -39.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u162.5 Win
Proj Total: 159.0
D
Sim u162.5 Win
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 13, 2025 BRTN @ UNCA 54 - 92
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +101.1% more
UNC Asheville: 3.6 vs Bryan (TN): 1.8
Field Goal % (L5) +15.0%
UNC Asheville: 48.4% vs Bryan (TN): 33.5%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +7.0%
UNC Asheville: 31.9% vs Bryan (TN): 24.9%
Turnovers (L5) +27.8% more
Bryan (TN): 20.5 vs UNC Asheville: 14.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BRTN Score 56.0 54
UNCA Score 103.0 92
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.9 / 24.9 34.0 / 50.0
Assists 9.1 / 11.2 22.0 / 12.0
Blocks 3.6 / 1.8 3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 48.4 / 33.5 48.0 / 46.0
Free Throw % 69.3 / 73.0 83.0 / 50.0
Rebounding 34.1 / 36.4 39.0 / 24.0
Steals 5.9 / 6.0 13.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 14.8 / 20.5 9.0 / 23.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BRTN
--
UNCA Advantage
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BRTN
--
UNCA Advantage
15-14-0 (51.7%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
BRTN
--
UNCA
15-14-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.3% Total +/-: -2.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNCA
BRTN
UNCA
BRTN
ML
53% 16-14
100% 4-0
63% 19-11
100% 4-0
ATS
57% 17-13
100% 4-0
63% 19-11
100% 4-0
TTL
60% 18-12
100% 4-0
100% 30-0
100% 4-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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