FORT VALLEY STATE
WILDCATSFVSU
0-0 | Road
56
GEORGIA STATE
PANTHERSGAST
1-3 | Home
90
AI Model Win Probability
WILDCATS
100%
PANTHERS
0%
WILDCATS
--
PANTHERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
154.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-40.0
GEORGIA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +40.0 points (Georgia State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around GAST -40.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GAST)
FVSU By 1-7 points
0.0%
FVSU By 8-14 points
0.0%
GAST By 1-7 points
0.1%
GAST By 8-14 points
0.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Fort Valley State
57
FORT VALLEY STATE
Georgia State
97
GEORGIA STATE
Simulated Score
Fort Valley State
55
FORT VALLEY STATE
Georgia State
88
GEORGIA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Panthers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Panthers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Panthers (+6.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -40.0
D
Sim
Panthers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -33.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u162.5
Win
Proj Total: 154.0
D
Sim
u162.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 13, 2025
FVSU @ GAST
56 - 90
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+116.9% more
Georgia State: 3.9
vs
Fort Valley State: 1.8
Rebounding (L5)
+27.5% more
Georgia State: 34.6
vs
Fort Valley State: 27.1
Free Throw % (L5)
+14.5%
Georgia State: 73.9%
vs
Fort Valley State: 59.4%
Turnovers (L5)
+26.7% more
Fort Valley State: 17.4
vs
Georgia State: 12.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
FVSU Score
57.0
56
GAST Score
97.0
90
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
31.4 / 37.0
43.0 / 30.0
Assists
11.2 / 12.1
18.0 / 10.0
Blocks
3.9 / 1.8
6.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
39.8 / 42.8
42.0 / 27.0
Free Throw %
73.9 / 59.4
70.0 / 58.0
Rebounding
34.6 / 27.1
52.0 / 33.0
Steals
6.9 / 6.9
5.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
12.8 / 17.4
13.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FVSU
--
GAST
Advantage
10-22-0
(31.3%)
Margin: -4.3
ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FVSU
--
GAST
Advantage
13-17-0
(43.3%)
Margin: -4.3
ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
FVSU
--
GAST
14-16-0
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3%
Total +/-: -2.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GAST
FVSU
GAST
FVSU
ML
56%
18-14
100%
1-0
71%
22-9
100%
1-0
ATS
59%
19-13
100%
1-0
71%
22-9
100%
1-0
TTL
59%
19-13
100%
1-0
100%
31-0
100%
1-0
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