VIRGINIA-LYNCHBURG
DRAGONSUVAL
0-0 | Road
68
ALABAMA STATE
HORNETSALST
2-1 | Home
124
AI Model Win Probability
DRAGONS
100%
HORNETS
0%
DRAGONS
--
HORNETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
146.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-54.0
ALABAMA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +54.0 points (Alabama State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ALST -54.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ALST)
UVAL By 1-7 points
0.0%
UVAL By 8-14 points
0.0%
ALST By 1-7 points
0.0%
ALST By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Virginia-Lynchburg
46
VIRGINIA-LYNCHBURG
Alabama State
100
ALABAMA STATE
Simulated Score
Virginia-Lynchburg
58
VIRGINIA-LYNCHBURG
Alabama State
85
ALABAMA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Hornets
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Hornets
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Hornets (-9.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -54.0
D
Sim
Hornets (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -27.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u160.5
Loss
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Sim
u160.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 14, 2025
UVAL @ ALST
68 - 124
Nov 18, 2024
UVAL @ ALST
64 - 115
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+143.0% more
Alabama State: 2.4
vs
Virginia-Lynchburg: 1.0
Steals (L5)
+88.9% more
Alabama State: 9.7
vs
Virginia-Lynchburg: 5.1
Assists (L5)
+50.2% more
Alabama State: 13.5
vs
Virginia-Lynchburg: 9.0
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+13.2%
Alabama State: 30.5%
vs
Virginia-Lynchburg: 17.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UVAL Score
46.0
68
ALST Score
100.0
124
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
30.5 / 17.3
36.0 / 28.0
Assists
13.5 / 9.0
32.0 / 11.0
Blocks
2.4 / 1.0
3.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
39.3 / 26.8
57.0 / 36.0
Free Throw %
59.8 / 64.3
48.0 / 70.0
Rebounding
37.1 / 33.6
61.0 / 24.0
Steals
9.7 / 5.1
18.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
11.2 / 14.5
14.0 / 27.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UVAL
--
ALST
Advantage
10-22-0
(31.3%)
Margin: -4.1
ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UVAL
--
ALST
Advantage
13-18-0
(41.9%)
Margin: -4.1
ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
UVAL
--
ALST
14-17-0
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8%
Total +/-: -1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ALST
UVAL
ALST
UVAL
ML
65%
20-11
78%
7-2
76%
19-6
100%
9-0
ATS
65%
20-11
78%
7-2
76%
19-6
100%
9-0
TTL
52%
16-15
44%
4-5
100%
25-0
100%
9-0
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