AI Model Win Probability
MIGHTY BANYANS
100%
OSPREYS
0%
MIGHTY BANYANS
--
OSPREYS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
165.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
NORTH FLORIDA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.0 points (North Florida)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UNF -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNF)
NCF By 1-7 points
3.3%
NCF By 8-14 points
0.6%
UNF By 1-7 points
12.2%
UNF By 8-14 points
23.0%
AI Model Projected Score
New College (FL)
74
NEW COLLEGE (FL)
North Florida
91
NORTH FLORIDA
Simulated Score
New College (FL)
51
NEW COLLEGE (FL)
North Florida
98
NORTH FLORIDA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Ospreys
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Ospreys
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Ospreys (+8.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Sim
Ospreys (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -47.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o149.5
Win
Proj Total: 165.0
D
Sim
u149.5
Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 15, 2025
NCF @ UNF
67 - 122
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+24.5% more
North Florida: 7.0
vs
New College (FL): 5.6
Assists (L5)
+8.6% more
North Florida: 11.5
vs
New College (FL): 10.6
Field Goal % (L5)
+1.7%
North Florida: 39.2%
vs
New College (FL): 37.6%
Blocks (L5)
+13.0% more
New College (FL): 2.0
vs
North Florida: 1.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NCF Score
74.0
67
UNF Score
91.0
122
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.0 / 32.9
35.0 / 38.0
Assists
11.5 / 10.6
21.0 / 11.0
Blocks
1.7 / 2.0
0.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
39.2 / 37.6
54.0 / 41.0
Free Throw %
67.4 / 70.0
61.0 / 78.0
Rebounding
27.8 / 31.9
50.0 / 33.0
Steals
7.0 / 5.6
15.0 / 3.0
Turnovers
14.6 / 13.6
6.0 / 25.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NCF
--
UNF
Advantage
7-25-0
(21.9%)
Margin: -8.6
ATS +/-: +1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NCF
--
UNF
Advantage
17-12-0
(58.6%)
Margin: -8.6
ATS +/-: +1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
NCF
--
UNF
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7%
Total +/-: +3.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNF
NCF
UNF
NCF
ML
69%
22-10
100%
2-0
66%
21-11
100%
2-0
ATS
69%
22-10
100%
2-0
66%
21-11
100%
2-0
TTL
66%
21-11
50%
1-1
100%
32-0
100%
2-0