Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Mountaineers @ Big Green APP @ DART

APP STATE

MOUNTAINEERSAPP

3-2  |  Road

85
FINAL
Sun, Nov 16 • 12:00 PM ET
Leede Arena
View Odds Details →

DARTMOUTH

BIG GREENDART

0-3  |  Home

77
AI Model Win Probability
MOUNTAINEERS
0%
📊
BIG GREEN
100%
MOUNTAINEERS --
BIG GREEN --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
161.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-39.0
APP STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +39.0 points (App State)
MountaineersAPP (-3.5) 0 Big GreenDART (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mountaineers Cover

100.0%

Big Green Cover

0.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around APP -39.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (APP)

APP By 1-7 points

0.1%

APP By 8-14 points

0.6%

DART By 1-7 points

0.0%

DART By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
100
APP STATE
61
DARTMOUTH
Simulated Score
59
APP STATE
78
DARTMOUTH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Mountaineers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Big Green Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Mountaineers (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -39.0
D
Sim Big Green (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -19.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 161.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 16, 2025 APP @ DART 85 - 77
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.5%
App State: 30.7% vs Dartmouth: 27.2%
Turnovers (L5) +49.5% more
Dartmouth: 13.7 vs App State: 9.2
Blocks (L5) +11.5% more
Dartmouth: 3.8 vs App State: 3.4
Free Throw % (L5) +3.6%
Dartmouth: 67.3% vs App State: 63.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
APP Score 100.0 85
DART Score 61.0 77
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 27.2 / 30.7 45.0 / 30.0
Assists 12.9 / 12.1 15.0 / 12.0
Blocks 3.8 / 3.4 3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 40.2 / 40.4 43.0 / 52.0
Free Throw % 67.3 / 63.7 73.0 / 71.0
Rebounding 38.5 / 36.6 28.0 / 34.0
Steals 4.3 / 4.7 6.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 13.7 / 9.2 16.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
APP Advantage
19-13-0 (59.4%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: +0.9
DART
11-16-0 (40.7%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
APP Advantage
16-13-1 (55.2%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: +0.9
DART
11-14-0 (44.0%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
APP
12-18-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -1.2
DART
12-13-0
O: 48.0% / U: 52.0% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DART
APP
DART
APP
ML
62% 16-10
62% 20-12
50% 13-13
59% 19-13
ATS
65% 17-9
59% 19-13
50% 13-13
59% 19-13
TTL
88% 23-3
69% 22-10
100% 26-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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