AI Model Win Probability
EAGLES
0%
EAGLES
100%
EAGLES
--
EAGLES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
183.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-57.0
TOCCOA FALLS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +57.0 points (Toccoa Falls)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around TF -57.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TF)
TF By 1-7 points
0.0%
TF By 8-14 points
0.0%
NCCU By 1-7 points
0.0%
NCCU By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Toccoa Falls
120
TOCCOA FALLS
North Carolina Central
63
NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL
Simulated Score
Toccoa Falls
47
TOCCOA FALLS
North Carolina Central
98
NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Eagles
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Eagles
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Eagles (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -57.0
D
Sim
Eagles (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -51.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 183.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 18, 2025
TF @ NCCU
67 - 123
Jan 3, 2023
TF @ NCCU
52 - 98
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+24.6% more
Toccoa Falls: 14.2
vs
North Carolina Central: 10.7
Field Goal % (L5)
+3.0%
Toccoa Falls: 37.6%
vs
North Carolina Central: 34.6%
Assists (L5)
+62.2% more
North Carolina Central: 12.2
vs
Toccoa Falls: 7.5
Steals (L5)
+19.8% more
North Carolina Central: 8.1
vs
Toccoa Falls: 6.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TF Score
120.0
67
NCCU Score
63.0
123
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.0 / 21.8
41.0 / 21.0
Assists
12.2 / 7.5
36.0 / 8.0
Blocks
2.1 / 2.2
4.0 / 0.0
Field Goal %
34.6 / 37.6
55.0 / 31.0
Free Throw %
72.1 / 70.4
78.0 / 70.0
Rebounding
29.7 / 32.1
50.0 / 35.0
Steals
8.1 / 6.8
13.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
10.7 / 14.2
15.0 / 27.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TF
--
NCCU
Advantage
14-18-0
(43.8%)
Margin: -3.6
ATS +/-: -1.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TF
--
NCCU
Advantage
15-13-0
(53.6%)
Margin: -3.6
ATS +/-: -1.9
⚖️ Over/Under
TF
--
NCCU
13-15-0
O: 46.4% / U: 53.6%
Total +/-: +2.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NCCU
TF
NCCU
TF
ML
65%
20-11
33%
1-2
81%
22-5
100%
3-0
ATS
71%
22-9
33%
1-2
81%
22-5
100%
3-0
TTL
55%
17-14
100%
3-0
100%
27-0
100%
3-0