Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Crusaders @ Golden Eagles WLCA @ USM

WILLIAM CAREY

CRUSADERSWLCA

0-0  |  Road

59
FINAL
Tue, Nov 18 • 8:30 PM ET
Reed Green Coliseum
View Odds Details →

SOUTHERN MISS

GOLDEN EAGLESUSM

2-3  |  Home

82
AI Model Win Probability
CRUSADERS
50%
📊
GOLDEN EAGLES
50%
CRUSADERS --
GOLDEN EAGLES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
81.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
SOUTHERN MISS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.0 points (Southern Miss)
CrusadersWLCA (-3.5) 0 Golden EaglesUSM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Crusaders Cover

4.5%

Golden Eagles Cover

95.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around USM -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USM)

WLCA By 1-7 points

3.3%

WLCA By 8-14 points

0.6%

USM By 1-7 points

12.2%

USM By 8-14 points

23.0%

AI Model Projected Score
32
WILLIAM CAREY
49
SOUTHERN MISS
Simulated Score
61
WILLIAM CAREY
88
SOUTHERN MISS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
50% Win Prob
D
Sim
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Sim Golden Eagles (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -27.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI 81
Proj Total: 81.0
D
Sim o157.5 Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 18, 2025 WLCA @ USM 59 - 82
Dec 30, 2024 WLCA @ USM 70 - 80
Nov 6, 2023 WLCA @ USM 42 - 64
Nov 7, 2022 WLCA @ USM 42 - 75
Nov 9, 2021 WLCA @ USM 67 - 81
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +50.7% more
Southern Miss: 12.9 vs William Carey: 8.6
Blocks (L5) +43.0% more
Southern Miss: 3.5 vs William Carey: 2.4
Steals (L5) +31.1% more
Southern Miss: 10.3 vs William Carey: 7.9
Rebounding (L5) +19.4% more
Southern Miss: 39.4 vs William Carey: 33.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WLCA Score 32.0 59
USM Score 49.0 82
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 27.7 / 23.7 42.0 / 27.0
Assists 12.9 / 8.6 17.0 / 9.0
Blocks 3.5 / 2.4 9.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 42.1 / 34.3 54.0 / 26.0
Free Throw % 71.9 / 72.6 67.0 / 77.0
Rebounding 39.4 / 33.0 46.0 / 40.0
Steals 10.3 / 7.9 7.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 11.6 / 15.4 14.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WLCA
--
USM Advantage
19-16-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WLCA
--
USM Advantage
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
WLCA
--
USM
20-13-0
O: 60.6% / U: 39.4% Total +/-: +3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USM
WLCA
USM
WLCA
ML
53% 18-16
-- 0-0
73% 24-9
-- 0-0
ATS
59% 20-14
-- 0-0
74% 25-9
100% 2-0
TTL
68% 23-11
-- 0-0
100% 34-0
100% 2-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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