NOTRE DAME (MD)
GATORSNDMD
0-0 | Road
52
UMBC
RETRIEVERSUMBC
4-2 | Home
102
AI Model Win Probability
GATORS
100%
RETRIEVERS
0%
GATORS
--
RETRIEVERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
154.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-40.0
UMBC
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +40.0 points (UMBC)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UMBC -40.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UMBC)
NDMD By 1-7 points
0.0%
NDMD By 8-14 points
0.0%
UMBC By 1-7 points
0.1%
UMBC By 8-14 points
0.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Notre Dame (MD)
57
NOTRE DAME (MD)
UMBC
97
UMBC
Simulated Score
Notre Dame (MD)
97
NOTRE DAME (MD)
UMBC
48
UMBC
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Retrievers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Gators
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Retrievers (+7.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -40.0
D
Sim
Gators (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -49.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o150.5
Win
Proj Total: 154.0
D
Sim
u150.5
Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 24, 2025
NDMD @ UMBC
52 - 102
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+54.5% more
UMBC: 2.6
vs
Notre Dame (MD): 1.7
Rebounding (L5)
+37.1% more
UMBC: 33.5
vs
Notre Dame (MD): 24.4
Assists (L5)
+30.2% more
UMBC: 12.6
vs
Notre Dame (MD): 9.7
Field Goal % (L5)
+8.8%
UMBC: 41.6%
vs
Notre Dame (MD): 32.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NDMD Score
57.0
52
UMBC Score
97.0
102
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
30.5 / 21.9
38.0 / 5.0
Assists
12.6 / 9.7
17.0 / 2.0
Blocks
2.6 / 1.7
7.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
41.6 / 32.8
55.0 / 31.0
Free Throw %
66.7 / 67.9
75.0 / 100.0
Rebounding
33.5 / 24.4
55.0 / 30.0
Steals
5.5 / 10.8
10.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
14.7 / 16.1
13.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NDMD
--
UMBC
Advantage
24-9-0
(72.7%)
Margin: 8.8
ATS +/-: +6.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NDMD
--
UMBC
Advantage
19-12-0
(61.3%)
Margin: 8.8
ATS +/-: +6.0
⚖️ Over/Under
NDMD
--
UMBC
14-17-0
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8%
Total +/-: -0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UMBC
NDMD
UMBC
NDMD
ML
58%
18-13
100%
2-0
55%
17-14
50%
1-1
ATS
68%
21-10
100%
2-0
55%
17-14
50%
1-1
TTL
39%
12-19
100%
2-0
100%
31-0
100%
2-0
